Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 12th Nov 2016

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the BetVictor Gold Cup the feature race – the C4 cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races, plus are also covering two at Wetherby. As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

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Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

 

12.40 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y

11/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/11 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
10/11 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
8/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
8/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
7/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
5/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/11 – German bred
3/11 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
1/11 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Katchit 2006)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1


1.15 - mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y

11/11 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
9/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Raced no more than twice over fences
9/11 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
9/11 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
8/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
7/11 – Aged 6 years-old
7/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) last time out
6/11 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase (no winners)
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by David Pipe
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 4/1


1.50 - BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y CH4

14/14 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
13/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/14 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Ran within the last month
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
6/14  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/14 – French bred
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Sausalito Sunrise won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1


2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y

14/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
13/14 – Won by a UK-based trainer
11/14 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
10/14 – Had won at Cheltenham before
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
9/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
8/14 – Aged 7 years-old
8/14 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
7/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 8 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 28 runners
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 9.6/1


3.00 - Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y CH4

13/14 – Aged 7 or younger
12/14 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
12/14 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
11/14 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
11/14 – Officially rated 126 to 137
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
9/14 – Irish bred
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14  – Ran at either Cheltenham (3), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
8/14 – Ran within the last month
6/14 – Won their last race
6/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/14 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/14 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Rons Dream took the race last season


3.35 - Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y CH4

10/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
9/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
6/11 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Favourites unplaced
6/11 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
5/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – French bred winners
2/11 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
2 of the last 4 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 8 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

2.05 - totescoop6 Racing´s Millionaire Maker Handicap Chase Cl3 2m3f85y CH4

1 previous running
Trainer Sue Smith won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 56% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland has a 38% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby has a 27% record with his chasers at the track


3.15 - totepoolliveinfo.com Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier for the Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final) Cl3 2m CH4

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Only 2 previous runnings
2 winning favourites
Both previous winners carried 11-6 or more
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Lucinda Russell is just 3 from 44 with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 5 from 61 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Paddy Brennan has a 22% record riding over hurdles at the track

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Theligny - Has done really well in recent weeks - winning his last two. Into handicap company here for the first time, but looks on a fair mark and Alan's claim a further plus. Gary Moore's looks the big danger, but our horse is well and as long as the ground doesn't cut up then should have every chance."
Tim Vaughan

08/11/16 1st 5/4

"Galros Lady - Winning pointer that has her first run for us. Running out of the handicap but we get in here with just 10-0. Has settled in well and we know she stays further than this which should help in this track. Would probably not want the ground to get much softer, but this looks a good place to start and expecting a massive run. Twenty Eight Guns the clear danger, but we get a lot of weight off that horse and our horse has been doing plenty of work at home and couldn't be happier with her. Expected to run a big race."
Tim Vaughan

08/11/16 1st 11/10

"Be Royale - Won four runs back on the turf at Pontefract and has not done badly in better races the last twice. Back in grade here is a big plus and Paul Hanagan is a further bonus in the saddle. First run here but likes the AW surfaces (4 wins), so no problems on that score. Might still be a tad high in the handicap with all wins coming off lower, but is well and a better chance in this grade than recent runs. Tricky race, but hoping for some Hanagan magic, so small each-way."
Mick Appleby

07/11/16 3rd 8/1

"Stamford Raffles - Was a good winner for us last time out at Chelmsford over 1m5 1/2f. Has been raised 8lbs for that and upped in grade here, but won well that day and we are hopeful the longer trip will bring out a bit more improvement. Had 1 1/2 months to get over that race and seems a lot fresher for it. More needed, but hoping for a decent run and should be going close."
Jane Chapple-Hyam

05/11/16 1st 7/2

"For Shia and Lula ran another great race in the week and just bumped into an improving 3yr old of Richard Faheys. We are turning him out quickly, which isn't ideal, but if he can handle the quick turnaround then we know he handles Chelmsford and on paper it looks like a race he can get involved in again. "
Mark Loughnane

05/11/16 1st 3/1

 

 

 

 

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