Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 13th Jan 2018

More LIVE ITV action this Saturday as the cameras head to Warwick for the Classic Chase - a race One For Arthur took 12 months ago before taking the Aintree Grand National, plus they are also at Kempton Park with the Lanzarote Hurdle their main race.

As normal we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
3/4 – Had won over fences at the track
3/4 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
3/4 – Had won at least 5 times over fences
3/4 – Winning favourites
3/4 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 32% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 4 from 45 (9%) with her chasers at the track

2.40 – 32Red.com Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had never won a hurdles race over this trip or longer before
11/16 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
10/16 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/16 – Irish (5) or French (5) bred
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
9/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Had run at Kempton before (4 won)
5/16-  Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (36 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

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3.15 – 32Red.com Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just five previous runnings
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had run at the track before
4/5 – Unplaced last time out
4/5 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/5- Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
4/5 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
4/5 – Carried 11-0 or more
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
3/5 – Placed favourites
2/5 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/5 – Winning favourites years is 5/1
The average winning SP in the last 5
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 30 with her chasers at the track

3.45 – 32Red.com Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

9/9 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
9/9 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/9 – Aged 6 or older
8/9 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/9 – Aged 6 years-old
7/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Returned a double-figure price
1/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 - Betfred Home Of Goals Galore Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

10/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
10/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
8/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
7/10 – Aged 7 years-old
6/10 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
6/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Trained by Alan King
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

2.25 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

12/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/12 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
9/12 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
9/12 – Officially rated between 126-142
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/12 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/12 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 7 winners were aged 8 or younger
Tobefair (9/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

3.00 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Leamington Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
11/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/11 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
7/11 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
7/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Aged 5 years-old
2/11 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 4/1

 

3.35 – Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

12/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/12 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
9/12 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
8/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/12 – Officially rated between 129-140
8/12 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
7/12 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
7/12 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/12 – Won by an Irish bred horse
7/12 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price
4/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 10.5/1

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