Sat TV Trends: 13th Oct 2012

It's Cesarewitch Day at HQ!

Excellent cards at Newmarket and York this week and as usual we’ve got all the key TV Trends for the LIVE C4 races.....

 

Newmarket (RUK/C4)

 

1.50 - Dubai Challenge Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) CH4 7f

10/10 – Won a Listed (3) or Group (7) race previously
10/10 – Won over 7f previously
10/10 – Won by  a horse aged 5 or younger
9/10 – Officially rated 113 or higher
9/10 – Raced 3 or more times that season
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/10 -  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
8/10 – Won 3 or more times previously
8/10 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
7/10 – Priced 7/1 or lower
6/10 – Placed in their last race
6/10 – Favourites placed
5/10 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
4/10 – Raced at either Ascot (2) or Goodwood (2) last time out
3/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Won their previous race
2/10 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
1/10 – Filly/Mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

2.20 -Vision.ae Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f

10/10 – Won over 6f previously
9/10 – Winning distance - 2 lengths or less
9/10 – Won their last race
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Had run 3 or more times previously
8/10 – Won at least twice previously
8/10 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
7/10 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
7/10 – Foaled in either Feb or March
5/10 – Favourites placed
3/10 – Ran at Deauville last time out
3/10 – Won by an Irish-based stable
3/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/10 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004 & 2011

 

2.55 - Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 7f

9/10 – Raced at least 3 times that season
9/10 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
9/10 – Placed in their last race
8/10 – Foaled in either  Feb or March
7/10 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (3) last time out
7/10 – Won over 7f previously
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/10 – Won at least 3 times previously
6/10 – Won their last race
6/10 – Won a Group race previously
5/10 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/10 – Won by an Irish-based stable
5/10 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
4/10 – Trained by Jim Bolger
4/10 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
3/10 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
3/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
0/10 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1

 

3.35 - Betfred Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 2m2f

10/10 – Won over at least 1m6f on the flat previously
9/10 – Won by a horse aged 4 or older
8/10 – Raced at least 3 times on the flat that season
8/10 – Finished 4th or better in their last race
8/10 – Run within the last 2 months
8/10 – Returned a double-figure price
7/10 – Winners from stall 12 or lower
7/10 – Won over at least 2m on the flat previously
7/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
7/10 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
7/10 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
6/10 – The first three returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Won 4 or more times on the flat previously
6/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
5/10 – Had raced at the course previously
5/10 – Won by a NH stable
2/10 – Won their last race
2/10 – Winning mares
2/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 16/1


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York (RUK/C4)


2.05 -
Bet On Your Mobile With Coral Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) CH4 5f

9/9 – Carried 8-12 or more
9/9 – Winning distance ½ length or less
8/9 – Had run within the last month
8/9 – Had won over 5f before
8/9 – Had 7 or more runs that season
7/9 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/9 – Had won at least 3 times before
7/9 – Aged 5 or younger
7/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Placed last time out
5/9 – Had run at York before
4/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/9 – Mare/Filly winners
1/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 8/1


2.35 – Coral Backing Macmillan Cancer Support Stakes (Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100) CH4 1m208y

Just 1 previous running
Mark Johnston won the 2011 race
Saeed Bin Suroor is just 1 from 28 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Michael Bell has a 19% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at York

 

3.10 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) CH4 6f

9/9 – Had raced within the last month
8/9 – Foaled in March or later
8/9 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
7/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/9 – Had never raced at York before
7/9 – Had won over 6f before
7/10 – Had 4 or more runs that season
5/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Ran at either Redcar (3) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/9 – Unplaced last time out
4/9 – Winners from stall 2
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Filly winners
1/9 – Just one placed horse (2nd) from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1

 

3.45 - Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) CH4 6f

9/9 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
9/9 – Ran within the last month
9/9 – Had won at least 3 races before
8/9 – Aged 5 or younger
8/9 – Had run at York before
8/9 – Had won a race over 6 before
7/9 – Carried 9-0 or less
7/9 – Rated between 92 and 98
6/9 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
6/9 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/9 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10.5/1

 

 

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1 reply
  1. oneman says:

    Hi Andy

    Regarding
    3.35 – Betfred Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) CH4 2m2f

    7/10 – Winners from stall 12 or lower

    I was just wondering if these trends are correct as Newmarket changed the way they number their stalls a few years ago and now start with 1 nearest the far rail and not the high numbers.
    It is the same for all right handed tracks in the UK
    This means that you now have to reverse the draw before this date to get the current data.

    Adjusting the draw to the new numbering system gives winners coming from stalls – 9-25-20-20-34-35-35-17-27-32-24-12-24-3-36 for the last 15 years.

    so 14 of the last 16 winners were drawn 11 or higher. 12 of the last 14 were drawn
    17+

    Please correct me if this is wrong as it can become very confusing

Comments are closed.