Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 13th Oct 2018

This weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket and York to take in seven LIVE races.

At HQ its the second day of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know that 13 of the last 16 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9-1 or less and had also raced in the last 2 months?

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy - a race that has seen ALL of the last 15 winners having raced in the last 4 weeks.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1.50 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
10/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Won no more than twice before
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/11 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/11 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/11 – Winners from stall 1

 

2.25 – Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

13/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/13 – Had raced at least twice before
11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/13 – Irish bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Godolphin winners
2/13 – Ridden by William Buick
2/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/13 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-5

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

 

3.00 - Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

16/16 – Raced at least 3 times that season
14/16 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
14/16 – Placed in their last race
12/16 – Won over 7f previously
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Won at least 3 times previously
11/16 – Won their last race
11/16 – Won a Group race previously
10/16 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/16 – Won by an Irish-based stable
9/16 – Foaled in either  Feb or March
7/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/16 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
5/16 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/16 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/16 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/16 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/16 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained the last three winners

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3.40 – Dubai £500,000 Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

15/16 – Aged 4 or older
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
13/16 – Had run within the last 2 months
13/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/16 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/16 – Aged 5 or older
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/16 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
9/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/16 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/16 – Had run at the track before
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Won by a NH trainer
4/16 – Winning mares
3/16 – Winners from stall 1
3/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 23/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

 

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

2.05 - Download The Coral App Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just five previous running
No winning favourite yet
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 3 years-old
All 5 previous winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 23% record with this 3 year-olds at the track

 

2.40 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15– Had raced within the last month
14/15 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
13/15 – Foaled in March or later
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/15 – Had never raced at York before
11/15 – Had won over 6f before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
9/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Unplaced last time out
6/15 – Ran at either Redcar (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Winners from stall 2
4/15 – Filly winners
3/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15 – Ridden by David Allen

 

3.15 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
15/15 – Had won at least 3 races before
14/15 – Had run at York before
14/15 – Had won a race over 6f before
13/15 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
11/15 – Aged 5 or younger
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Rated between 92 and 98
8/15 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/15 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/15 – Filly or mare winners
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017

 

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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