Sat TV Trends – 14th March 2015

Cheltenham might be done for another year,  but the racing show goes on this Saturday - we've got the Midlands Grand National and the Lingfield Winter Derby, plus a decent jumps card at Kempton - We've got all the LIVE C4 races covered from a trends angle.......
Lingfield (ATR/C4)

 

2.30 - 32Red Spring Cup (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f1y CH4

11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/12 – Won between 1-3 times before in their career
11/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Raced at either Lingfield  (4), Newmarket (3) or Doncaster (2) last time out
9/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
8/12 – Had not won over 7f before
8/12 – Having their first run of the season
8/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Had won at Lingfield before
3/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/12 – Trained by Clive Brittain
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Hughes

3.05 - coral.co.uk Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f CH4

12/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
10/12 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Had run at Lingfield previously
9/12 – Won over at least 1m4f previously
9/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
9/12 – Had raced at either Lingfield (6) or Kempton (3) last time out
9/12 – Winning distance – less than a length
8/12 – Placed in their last race
8/12 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
8/12 – Won at Lingfield previously
7/12 – Came from the top 3 in the market
7/12 – Won their last race
7/12 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
7/12 – Won at least 6 times previously
5/12 – Favourites to win
2/12 – Trained by Clive Brittain
The average winning SP in the 12 renewals is 6/1

3.40 - Unibet Hever Sprint Stakes (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y

12/12 – Won over 5f before
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Had won at least 4 times in their career
9/12 – Had run at Lingfield before
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/12 – Unplaced favourites
8/12 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/12 – Drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Had won at Lingfield before
6/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Aged 4 years-old
3/12 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
1/12 – Winning favourites

Uttoxeter (ATR/C4)

2.05 - Betfred "Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Cl4 2m CH4

8/8 – Failed to win last time out
7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/8 – Carried 11-5 or less
6/8 – Had won at the trip before
5/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
5/8 – Placed 2nd, 3rd, 4th last time out
5/8 – Carried between 11-2 and 11-10
3/8 – Irish bred
3/8 – Had run at the track before (2 winners)
1/8 – Winning favourites

2.40 - Betfred TV Ltd Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 3m CH4

9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Rated 121 or less
8/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/11 – Carried 10-9 or more
8/11 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
8/11 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
7/11 – Placed last time out
7/11 – Returned 7/1 or less
6/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Aged 7 years-old
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
1/11 – Winning favourites

3.15 - Betfred "Home of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m4f110y CH4

Only Three Previous Runnings
3/3 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
3/3 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Aged 8 years-old
Nicky Henderson has a 26% record at the track with his hurdlers
Charlie Longsdon has a 23% record at the track with his hurdlers

3.50 - Betfred Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y CH4

11/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
10/11 – Carried 10-9 or less
9/11 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/11 – Officially rated 133 or less
9/11 – Won by an Irish bred horse
9/11 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
9/11 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
7/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Trained by David Pipe
2/11 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 11/1

Kempton (RUK/C4)

1.45 – 888sport.com Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 2m CH4

7/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/8 – Carried 11-0 or less
6/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/8 – Won at least once over fences before
4/8 – Won 3 or more times before over fences
4/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Winning favourites

2.20 – Kempton Park 888sport.com Silver Plate (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 2m5f CH4

Only one previous running
Neil Mulholland won the race 12 months ago
Jim Best has a 44% record with his hurdlers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 31 with her hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Barry Geragthty has a 29% record when riding over hurdles here

3.30 - Kempton Park 888sport.com Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y CH4

Only one previous running
Nicky Henderson has a 32% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Webber has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

 

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More great winners this week..............................

"Mr Red Clubs - Third here last time - same mark give him a great chance again, but does need to prove himself over this trip as all wins to date have been over shorter - that said, I don't see that being a massive issue as has run well over further than a mile in the past, so worth another go, especially on this track. Decent place chance."
Mick Appleby 12/03/15 2nd 8/1

"Coco Des Champs - She is a big filly who is continually growing. She is going well at home and Ben Ffrench Davis takes off a valuable 10Ib. The track and trip will suit. "
Oliver Sherwood 12/03/15 2nd 16/1

"Katie Gale - Easy winner last time out. Has to cope with 9lb rise and drop in trip. But can't see either being a massive factor and should take all the beating again."
Mick Appleby 11/03/15 1st 8/15

"Layline - Well beaten last time behind Katie Gale, but the horse seems better now and is flying at home. The jockey gets on well with him and we expect to give Mick's horse a run for it's money today, especially back in trip."
Gay Kelleway 11/03/15 2nd 11/2

"Showtime Star: CD winner here at the track - step back up to 6f a plus. The Appleby horse might be improving, but we come here wth a fair e/w chance."
Gay Kelleway 10/03/15 1st 3/1

"Dino Mite: Is improving slowly and would have an e/w chance here, but will ultimately be better off in handicaps down the line."
Jamie Snowden 09/03/15 1st 9/2

"Tanit River - Into handicap company for the first time. That's a big help and not on a bad mark either. Has improved since his last run in December and at a fair e/w price I think he can go well."
Tim Vaughan 08/03/15 1st 14/1

"Rayvin Black - He has to improve today, he's in great order at home and loves the track. He carries bottom weight and hopeful of good run."
Oliver Sherwood 07/03/15 2nd 33/1

"Financial Climate: He ran a great race to win at Chepstow. He's a genuine horse who rarely runs a bad race, I'm hopeful of a good run."
Oliver Sherwood 07/03/15 1st 11/2

 

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14 replies
  1. Will sharpe says:

    Very disappointed with your Cheltenham performance, in fact used your info on Friday as my laying system. Needless to say I will not continue with your service. Looking through records you only tipped two red hot fav winners- don poli and daughter, so a poor performance.
    Will sharpe

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Really pleased you did well laying my picks on Friday, Will. That’s the spirit. Needless to say I’m slightly relieved you’ll not be continuing to follow geegeez. If you actually read the posts you might have found a few more winners, but hey ho, like you say, I put up the wrong ones all week.

      Matt

  2. Albert says:

    It would be so nice to be right 100% of the time!!
    I enjoy reading all your comments and add all your skill to assist me in culling my selections and use your knowledge to ensure my finl selections have a better chance of making me a profit,. Your an excellent writer and a great fount oif info keep it up

  3. Ross says:

    Must say I think Will is smoking something…
    I went heavy on 2 horses you tipped up Milsean at 50/1 who just got pipped soooo close but £50 EW paid very nicely and Don Poli loaded
    Super successful Cheltenham for me thanks to you haha

  4. Andrew Westwood says:

    Will sharpe, you are either very hard to please or taking the Mick. Matt put up the trends and his opinions, not specifically tips. I would respectfully suggest that your laying system may require a slight modification. I shall continue to read your blogs Matt , as I find them enjoyable to read aswell as informative.

  5. dushi58 says:

    What an amazing comment from Will……. thought the info given throughout the week to be spot on…..thanks Matt…..and don’t forget how the ground had changed on the Friday….after you had written your comments….o well no pleasing some people I guess 🙂
    Mick

  6. Tuckers Luck says:

    hey will, was you watching Fridays racing? i mean you cant get a lot closer than a 50/1 beaten by 1/2 length, great tipping as usual just didnt have the rub of the green, keep up the fine work matt

    • Chris Worrall says:

      He’s laying 50/1 shots!
      Jeez, that’s funny.

      A very quick way to the poor house IMO.

  7. cutler43 says:

    no pleasing everyone I would like to say you know the business backed cole harden ante post at 33/1 ew with many clouds 12/1 ew & ew double but thats the way it goes close but not close enough regards jc

  8. George says:

    Oh dear Will, I think you should take a look at your comments, it says more about you than it does about Matt. Matt has not, to my knowledge, promised to name the winner of every race and nor could he, or he’d be keeping his info to himself. It’s just a blog with annecdotes and personal opinions. Nothing written in blood or carved in stone. Get over yourself. I backed Coneygree in spite of anything Matt said and his trends and info almost got me four place pots out of four. In the end, it’s your confirm the bet button you pressed, you never got Matt to do it for you! Matt, love the blog, keep the faith brother!

  9. John says:

    I always do a Yankee on the last day of Cheltenham for fun. Just a £4 each way one. I have to say that I extensively used the Geegeez cards to help with my selections for that. Two horses that I would not have included without Matt;s input were Max Dynamite and Paint the Clouds. Given that I added them (because of Matt) to Hargram and No More heroes, I ended up getting paid over £900 on the each way part of the Yankee. Have to agree with many other comments here, the adverse comment tells me everything I need to know about that man’s approach to betting.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John, and everyone,

      Thanks a lot for your support and, more importantly, for understanding the spirit in which I publish my thoughts. It takes no less time than the roughly eight hours I spend going through each day’s cards and writing them when they all win, as when they all get beat.

      I too had a great week on the placepot front, but Friday was hard going. I knew my/our Paint The Clouds fate when the rain came – he needs top of the ground – and I’ll be looking to get losses back at Stratford in the Champion Hunter Chase there.

      Nothing will change, and there will be more of the same for Aintree. Can’t wait!

      Thanks again for your kind words of support,
      Matt

      p.s. three huge priced seconds were as frustrating from a punting perspective as they were satisfying from a cerebral perspective. God’s Own at 40’s, Somersby at 40’s, and Milsean at 50’s. So close, but no win cigar…

  10. whiston01 says:

    I found the write ups during Cheltenham interesting and just another slant from somebody who is very near the top of the tree at finding an edge for the punter. Now if ever you needed to know how hard it is to make a profit at the Cheltenham festival take a look at the results Of Matt Doyle at Bet Alchemist.This is a man who i rate very highly but over the four days i dont think he found a winner.This doesnt make him a poor tipster.he just got it wrong at Cheltenham.The previous thirteen months were profitable.That im afraid is horse racing and how you have to take a long term view.Perhaps Will Sharpe you should read the last point.

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