Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 14th Oct 2023 (York and Newmarket)

More LIVE ITV action on Saturday 14th October for day two of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York.

Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn Stakes & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know? 16 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9st 2lbs or less

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy.

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So as always - here at Geegeez - we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle, plus our verdicts on each race.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.25 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

17/18 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/18 – Had raced at least twice before
15/18 – Won between 1-2 times before
14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
11/18 – Irish bred
7/18 – Godolphin winners
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 8)
4/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 6)
3/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
8 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 3-5
2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 9
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race.
Silver Knott (4/1) won the race in 2022

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

2.00 – Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

21/21 – Raced at least 3 times that season
19/21 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
19/21 – Placed in their last race
16/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Favourites placed
15/21 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/21 – Won their last race
15/21 – Won a Group race previously
13/21 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (9) last time out
13/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/21 – Won by an Irish-based stable
11/21 – Favourites that won
8/21 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
7/21 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
7/21 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season (4 won both)
6/21 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
6/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (7 wins in total)
5/21 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/21 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
3/21 – Godolphin-owned winners (3 of the last 11)
2/21 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 4)
1/21 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 of the last 10 winners
Chaldean (5/2 jfav) won the race in 2022

2.40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

20/21 – Aged 4 or older
17/21 – Carried 9-2 or less
16/21 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
16/21 – Had run within the last 2 months
15/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/21 – Aged 5 or older
14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/21 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
12/21 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
12/21 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
11/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/21 – Won by a NH trainer
11/21 – Had run at the track before
9/21 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
9/21 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
9/21 – Placed favourites
8/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
5/21 – Winning mares
4/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winners from stall 1
3/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 5 winners)
3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/21 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/21 - Trained by Brian Meehan
2/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 20/1
Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

3.15 – Ghayyth Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
15/16 – Won no more than twice before
14/16 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
10/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 - Came from stalls 2 or 3
3/16 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 8
Flying Honours (10/11 fav) won the race in 2022

3.50 Earthlight Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV4

9/10 – Won over a least 1m before
9/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/10 – Listed or Group winner
8/10 – Winners from stalls 7 or higher
7/10 – Had run at the course before (4 won)
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Favourites unplaced
4/10 – Winners priced 20/1 or bigger
3/10 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (last 2)
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 - Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

20/20– Had raced within the last 4 weeks
19/20 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
16/20 – Had 4 or more runs that season
16/20 – Foaled in March or later
15/20 – Had never raced at York before
14/20 – Had won over 6f before
14/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/20 – Placed favourites
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
8/20 – Ran at either Redcar (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Filly winners
4/20 – Winners from stall 2
3/20 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/20 – Ridden by David Allan
The  horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 13 runnings
Alpha Capture (5/2 fav) won the race in 2022

2.25 – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

20/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
20/20 – Had won at least 3 races before
19/20 – Had run at York before
19/20 – Had won a race over 6f before
18/20 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
15/20 – Aged 5 or younger
15/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/20 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
11/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Rated between 92 and 98
11/20 – Carried 9-2 or less
8/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/20 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/20 – Won last time out
3/20 - Trained by David O’Meara (3 of the last 7)
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of the last 6 winners)
2/20 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/20 – Filly or mare winners
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
4 of the last 14 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Red Strike (12/1) won the race in 2022
Gulliver (16/1) won the race in 2019 and 2020
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017

3.05 Coral Racing EBF Maiden Stakes (Qipco British Champions Series 2YO Race) (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 1m ITV4

Just one past running
Trainer Charlie Johnston is 2 from 10 with his 2 year-olds here
Trainer Hugo Palmer is 0 from 14 with his 2 year-olds here
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 4 from 74 with his 2 year-olds at the track

3.35 – Coral Racing Bet Bundles Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV4

9/10 -  Returned 11/1 or shorter
9/10 – Won over at least 1m2f before
8/10 – Rated between 95-103
7/10  - Aged 3 years-old
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
6/10 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Carried 9-0 or more
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
4/10 – Had run at the track before
4/10 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
5/10 – Irish bred
2/10 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners came from stall 8

 

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