Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 15th July 2017

It’s the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting today and the ITV cameras are there to take in the best of the action, plus they are also at York and Ascot on what is a bumper Saturday of flat horse racing.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats – use these to find the best profiles of past winners of each race.

 

 

Saturday 15th July 2017

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

2.50 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/15 – Had won over 7f or further previously
12/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/15 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/15 – Unplaced in their last race
8/15 – Favourites unplaced
7/15 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Winning Favourites
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
Von Blucher (7/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/1

3.25 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

14/15 – Won over 7f previously
14/15 – Raced 3 or more times that season
11/15 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
10/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
8/15 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
8/15 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
7/15 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
7/15 – Placed in their last race
4/15 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Golden Steps (7/1 jfav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1
Heaven’s Guest won the race in 2014 & was second in 2016

4.00 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Won over at least 6f previously
13/15 – Placed in their last race
12/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
11/15 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
10/15 – Won their latest race
10/15 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/15 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/15 – Favourites unplaced
4/15 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/15 – Winners from stall 3
4/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
4/15 – Winning Favourites
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
Boynton (7/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

4.35 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2016 – Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011  Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010  Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009  Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008  Marchand d'Or  (5/2 fav)
2007  Sakhee's Secret  (9/2)
2006  Les Arcs (10/1)
2005  Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004  Frizzante (14/1)
2003  Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002  Continent (12/1)

15 Year July Cup Betting Trends

14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
12/15 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
11/15 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
9/15 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/15 – Placed last time out
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won their previous race
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – French-trained winners
Limato (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.55 - John Smith´s Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

13/13 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
12/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/13 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
10/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
9/13 – Rated 90 or less
9/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
8/13 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
8/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Won by a USA-bred horse
4/13 – Had raced at York before
3/14 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 11 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2 or 3
Home Cummins (20/1) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.30 - John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f ITV

11/11 – Aged 5 or younger
11/11 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
10/11 – Won from stall 10 or lower
9/11 – Didn’t win their previous race
7/11 – Aged 4 years-old
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Carried 9-5 or less
6/11 – Had run at York before
4/11 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
4/11 – Luca Cumani-trained horses that finished in the top three
4/11 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Pamona (20/1) won the race in 2016

3.05 – 58th John Smith´s Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners

2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

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John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
12/15 – Came from stall 9 or higher
11/15 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
10/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Carried 9-2 or less
9/15 – Top 3 finish in their previous race
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Officially rated between 99-105
7/15 – Had run at York before
4/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/15 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

4.15 - John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

Only 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Won over 5f before
6/6 – Placed favourites
6/6 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
6/6 – Rated between 101 and 110
4/6 – Had only won at Handicap class before
4/6 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Won by a neck
3/6 – Won at York before
2/6 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/6 – Ridden by Phillip Makin
Marsha (5/1) won the race in 2016
Out Do won the race in 2015

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.10 - Totescoop6 Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

Just 3 previous running
4/4 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
3/4 – Carried 8-10 or more
2/4 – Aged 4 years-old
Royal Birth (8/1 co-fav) won the race 12 months ago

3.50 - Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV

10/10 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Had won over at least a mile before
8/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/10 – Had raced at Ascot before (1 won)
7/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Previous Group race winner
5/10 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/10 – Aged 4 years-old
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Had won a Group 1 before
3/10 – Raced at Ascot last time out
Mutakayyef (7/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

 

 

 

 

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