Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 15th October 2016

It’s Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday – As normal Andy Newton’s covered all the LIVE C4 races from a trends & stats angle.

 

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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4)


1.25 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m CH4

12/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/14 – Won at Listed or better class previously
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or less
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
10/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Aged 5 or older
9/14 – Raced at least 5 times that season
9/14 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
9/14 – Won at least 5 times previously
7/14 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (2) last time out
6/14 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/14 – Won their latest race
4/14 – Irish-trained winners
Forgotten Rules won the race in 2014
Since 2011: 4 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 3 of the last 4
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Newmarket

 

2.00 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f CH4

13/14 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/14 – Won over 6f previously
13/14 – Raced at least 4 times that season
13/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
13/14 – Won at least 3 times previously
12/14 – Won at Listed or better class previously
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/14 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
10/14 – Won a Group race previously
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
9/14 – Favourites placed
8/14 – Raced at Haydock (4), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/14 – Won their latest race
4/14 – Favourites that won
Since 2011: 4 of the last 5 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 4 of the last 5 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 4 of the last 5 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6.3/1

Note:
The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

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2.35 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f CH4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/8 – Won over 1m4f previously
7/8 – Won at Listed or better class previously
6/8 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
6/8 – Won at least 3 times previously
6/8 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
5/8 – Rated 110 or higher
5/8 – Favourites placed
5/8 – Aged 3 years-old
4/8 – Won their last race
2/8 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/8 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/8 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1
Simple Verse won the race 12 months ago

Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket


3.10 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m CH4

14/14 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
14/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
14/14 – Raced at least 3 times that season
14/14 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
13/14 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
12/14 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Raced at Ascot previously (5 won)
8/14 – Won their latest race
7/14 – Won at least 7 times previously
7/14 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
6/14 – Favourites that won
3/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 5 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stall 4 have finished second 3 times

Note:
The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket


3.45 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f CH4

14/14 – Won at least 4 times previously
13/14 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
12/14 – Won over 1m2f previously
12/14 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
10/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/14 – Raced 5 or more times that season
8/14 – Won their last race
6/14 – Raced at either Longchamp (3) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/14 – Favourites unplaced
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price
3/14 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/14 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/14 – Favourites
Fascinating Rock won the race 12 months ago
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stall 8 have been second the last 2 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 8/1


4.25 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m CH4

Just 2 previous runnings
Both previous winners aged 5 years-old
No winning favourite
Horses from stalls 12 and 13 have both been placed in the last 2 runnings
GM Hopkins was 2nd in the race 12 months ago
Master The World was 3rd in the race 12 months ago
Bronze Angel (Marcus Tregoning) won the race in 2014

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Cascading Stars ran her best race for a while last time out & this looks a similar type of race. We have never tried her on ground quite this soft but think she will handle it, so if she gets a good position from her draw then we believe she can get involved again & is a decent each-way price."
Mark Loughnane

06/10/16 2nd 11/1

"Amathyst - Got slightly hampered on her last run, down a furlong and a grade and has place chances."
Mick Appleby

06/10/16 1st 4/1

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