Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 16th Feb 2019

With the equine flu situation now over, racing is back and it's back with a bang!

With the ITV cameras covering some of last week's lost races we've now 10 contests to take in from Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and even  heading over to Ireland for the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.35 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

16/16 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
14/16 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
8/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

 

2.10 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/8 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/8 – Aged 8 or older
7/8 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
6/8 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/8 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
5/8 – Aged in double-figures
4/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Irish bred
3/8 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/8 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Winning Favourites
5 of the last 6 winners carried 11-0 or more
Regal Encore won this race in 2018

2.45 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Rated 150+
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged 8 or younger
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
9/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
9/15 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/15 – Returned a double-figure price
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
6 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 12 runnings is 10/3

3.20 - Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

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16/16 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Rated 130 or higher
13/16 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
13/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Aged 5 years-old (including 7 of last 10)
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/16 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/16 - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/16 – Owned by JP McManus
1/16 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
21 of the last 22 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1

 

3.55 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

16/16 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
15/16 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
14/16 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
13/16 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Officially rated 157 or higher
11/16 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/16 – Favourites that won
7/16 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/16 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/16 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/16 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
5/16 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
5/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
10 of the last 12 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.25 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/16 – Rated 145 or higher
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/16 – Aged 8 or younger
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
7/16 – Had run at Haydock before
6/16 – French-bred
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

 

3.35 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

16/16 – UK-based trained winners
16/16 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
13/16 – Aged 10 or younger
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Aged 9 or younger
12/16 – Rated 135 or higher
11/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/16 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/16 – Irish-bred winners
4/16 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/16 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/16 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/16 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

1.45 Betway Heedyourhunch Handicap Chase 2m ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
3/4 – Aged 8 or younger
2/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore is just 1 from 14 with his chasers at the track

3.00 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
13/15 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/15 – Rated 155 or higher
9/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
1/15 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

 

GOWRAN PARK TRENDS (ITV4)

2.30 – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (Chase) before
10/10 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 8 or younger
7/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/10 – Rated 150 or lower
6/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Raced at Thurles last time out
3/10 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Townend

 

 

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