Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 16th July 2016

As always Andy Newton’s got all the trends for Saturday’s Channel 4 TV races - this week from Newmarket, Market Rasen & Newbury, plus we are also covering the Irish Oaks from the Curragh.

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

3.15 - Racing UK HD Handicap Cl2 1m CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Winning distance exactly 1 length
4/5 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/5 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
4/5 – Rated between 92-97 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 2011& 2013
No winning favourites
3 of the last 5 winners carried 9-7 or more
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Adam Kirby has a 26% record riding older horses at the track
Martin Harley has just a 3% strike-rate riding older horses at the track


3.50 - Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Registered as The Aphrodite Stakes) (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f CH4

12/13 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
11/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/13 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/13 - Winning favourite
4/13 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.30 - Bathwick Tyres EBF Breeders´ Series Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m CH4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Had won no more than 4 times before
8/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/8 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
7/8 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
6/8 – Aged 4 years-old
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Winners that came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
6/8 – Won over at least a mile before
5/8 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/8 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/8 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/8 – Returned 8/1 in the betting
2/8 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/8 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/8 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/2


3.00 – bet365 Stakes (Registered as The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4

9/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
7/12 – Had run at the track before
7/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Had won a Group race before
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

3.35 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y CH4

11/12 – Won over 6f before
9/12 – Aged 5 or younger
9/12 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Had won a Group race before
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winners from stall 8
2/12 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
1/12 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 9 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

4.10 - Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y CH4

11/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/12 – Won 1-2 times before
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
6/12 – Irish bred horses
6/12 – Won by a Feb or March foal
6/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Won by a filly
4/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/12 – Winners from stall 1
3/12 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1


Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

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2.15 - Betfred TV Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f CH4

13/14 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
8/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
3/14 – Ridden by Denis O’Regan
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
The last 10 winners carried 11-5 or less
7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-0 or less
6 of the last 10 winners retuned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Dr Richard Newland won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

2.45 - Betfred Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y CH4

14/14 – Had run within the last 3 months
13/14 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or older
11/14 – Had won 2 or more chases before
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Had run at Market Rasen before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/14 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
It’s A Gimme won the race in 2014


Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)


5.45 - Darley Irish Oaks (Group 1) 1m4f

11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
9/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Won over 1m4f before
6/13 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
6/13 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
6/13 – Won by a UK-based trainer
5/13 – Had won a Group One before
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
4/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 4/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Angrywhitepyjamas - He ran very well first time out at Haydock (third - only beaten 2 lengths) but was very green, this is a step up in distance today which will suit him and I'm sure he will improve again from his first run. Hopeful of a good run today and looks a fair e/w price to us."
William Muir

11/07/16 1st 9/1

"Eurystheus - Not won for a while now, but been showing signs of late that a return to winning ways might not be far away. A close second last time out, but the handicapper has raised him 2lbs for that so we are going back up the ratings without winning. On a plus - track and trip are fine and this seems to be his grade now. A race with many chances but he's got his conditions so if running to the level of last time has place claims again."
Mick Appleby

09/07/16 1st 7/1

 

 

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