Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 17th Feb 2018

Another huge day on the horse racing front this weekend as the ITV cameras will be heading to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton this Saturday. The Grand National Trial at Haydock and the Ascot Chase (yes, you guessed it, at Ascot) are the feature contests to look out for.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

15/15 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
13/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Won 1 or 2 chase previously
6/7 - Finished 5th or better last time out
6/7 – Aged 8 or older
6/7 – Raced at either Ascot (2) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
5/7 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
4/7 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
4/7 – Aged in double-figures
3/7 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Favourites
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11-0 or more
Tenor Nivernais won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/2

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3.00 - Ascot Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f110y ITV

11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/12 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Carried 10-12 or less
7/12 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/12 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
5/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/12 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/12 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

15/15 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
14/15 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
13/15 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
13/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/15 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
11/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Officially rated 158 or higher
10/15 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
10/15 – Favourites that won
7/15 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/15 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/15 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/15 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
5/15 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
4/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Cue Card won the race in 2013 & 2017
9 of the last 11 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8

 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.05 - Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

14/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/15 – Rated 145 or higher
10/15 – Aged 8 or younger
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
10/15 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
6/15 – French-bred
6/15 – Had run at Haydock before
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Zarkandar won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

3.15 - Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

15/15 – UK-based trained winners
15/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
12/15 – Aged 10 or younger
11/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/15 – Rated 135 or higher
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/15 – Irish-bred winners
4/15 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/15 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

 

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.45 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/14 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/14 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Rated 155 or higher
8/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/14 – Winning favourites
8/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/14 – Trained by Alan King
1/14 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Yanworth won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

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