Sat TV Trends: 17th Jan 2015

It’s off to Haydock and Ascot this Saturday for the LIVE C4 action – like all big race days Andy Newton’s got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle…….

 

 

Ascot (ATR/C4)

1.50 - OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
6/6 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
6/6 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
5/6 – From the top 4 in the betting
5/6 – Later ran in that season’s David Nicholson Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
5/6 – Ran at either Haydock (2) or Newbury (2) in their last race
5/6 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
4/6 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
3/6 – Aged 6 years-old
3/6 – Favourites placed
3/6 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/6 – Won their last race
2/6 – French bred
2/6 - Later finished second in the David Nicholson Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/6 – Favourites
Trainer Harry Fry won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 9/2

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Harry Fry is 4 from 6 with his hurdlers at the track
AP McCoy is just 3 from 37 riding over hurdles here



2.25 – Keltbray Holloway´s Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f110y CH4

8 previous runnings
7/8 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
6/8 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
6/8 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/8 – Aged 7 or younger
6/8 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/8 – Officially rated 139 or higher
6/8 – French bred
6/8 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/8 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
5/8 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
4/8 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
4/8 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/8 – Won their last race
3/8 – Aged 6 years-old
3/8 – Trained by David Pipe
2/8 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/8 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/8 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/8 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
1/8 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 11/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Nick Williams has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his hurdlers here
Donald McCain has a 26% record with his hurdlers here
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 2 from 30 with his hurdlers here
Charlie Longsdon is just 1 from 29 with his hurdlers here
Tom Scudamore is just 2 from 17 riding over hurdles here

 

3.00 - Sodexo Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f CH4

12/12 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/12 – Won over fences at 2m1f or further
12/12 – Aged 9 or younger
12/12 – Won 3 or more times (fences) before
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/12 – Ran at Sandown (5) or Wetherby (3) last time out
8/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
6/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/12 – Favourites
3/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 4 times in all)
3/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
2/12 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/12 – Won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
2/12 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, 2014 Sire de Grugy)
Since 1989 there have only been 2 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (24 runnings) there have been 11 winners aged 8 years-old
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 – Renewal at Cheltenham

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Nicky Henderson has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Barry Geraghty has a 33% record riding over fences at the track
Noel Fehily has a 21% record riding over fences at the track

 

3.35 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

9/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
9/9 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
8/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Aged 8 or younger
7/9 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
7/9 – Either French (3) or Irish (4) bred
7/9 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
6/9 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
6/9 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
5/9 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
5/9 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/9 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
4/9 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
4/9 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
2/9 – Trained by Richard Rowe
1/9 – Won their last race
1/9 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 7.65/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his chasers here
Dan Skelton is 2 from 6 with his chasers here
Barry Geraghty has a 33% record riding over fences here
Aidan Coleman has a 21% record riding over fences here

 


Haydock (RUK/C4)

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 7 or younger
8/8 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
7/8 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Aged 5 years-old
5/8 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/8 – Won their last race
3/8 – Favourites
3/8 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
2/8 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/8 – French bred
2/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/8 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
2/8 – Ridden by Jason Maguire
2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Jason Maguire has a 29% record riding over hurdles here

 

2.05 – stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) Cl1 2m CH4

9/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
9/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/9 – Finished in the top three in their last race
7/9 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
7/9 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
7/9 -  From the top 3 in the betting
7/9 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
7/9 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
6/9 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
6/9 – Aged 7 or younger
6/9 – Either French (3) or Irish (3) bred
5/9 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (2) last time out
4/9 – Favourites
3/9 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
2/9 – Won their last race
1/9 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 9/4

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TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Donald McCain has a 24% with his hurdlers here
Jason Maguire has a 29% record riding over hurdles here

 

2.40 - Racing UK 1 Price 3 Devices Graduation Chase Cl2 2m5f CH4

Only 2 previous runnings
Paul Nicholls won the race 12 months ago
2/2 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting market

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Colin Tizzard has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Sue Smith has a +£34 level stakes profit with her chasers at the track
Wayne Hutchinson has a 29% record riding over fences here

 

3.15 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f CH4

11/11 – Aged 8 or older
11/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/11 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
10/11 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
10/11 – Had run within the last 31 days
9/11 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
8/11 – Officially Rated 140 or higher
8/11 – Won at Haydock previously
7/11 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
7/11 – Favourites unplaced
7/11 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
7/11 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
7/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
6/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
6/11 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/11 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
5/11 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
4/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/11 – Won over fences at Haydock before
2/11 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/11 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/11 – Won their last race
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 11/1
1/10 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings  - 10/1

TRAINER/JOCKEY STATS:
Colin Tizzard has a 29% record with his chasers at the track
Venetia Williams is just 3 from 42 wither chasers at the track
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 2 from 37 with his chasers at the track
Sam Twiston-Davies is just 1 from 32 riding over fences here
Tom O'Brien has a 22% record riding over fences here

 

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"Little Boy Boru - Six pounds out of the handicap and may find this track a bit sharp. However, thoroughly genuine and has plenty of stamina and has a small each way squeak at 9st 9lb if ground is testing. More rain will help as ground probably very holding now."
Suzy Smith 10/01/15 2nd 25/1

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