Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 18th June 2016

As we move into Day FIVE at Royal Ascot on the Saturday, there is plenty going on again with six more races. The Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes is the feature contest, while we've also got the ultra-competitive Wokingham Handicap, plus the Queen Alexandra Stakes, Hardwicke Stakes, Wolferton Handicap and the Chesham Stakes to enjoy.

As always we've got all the LIVE Saturday Royal Ascot races covered from a trends and stats angle - hopefully these will help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners!

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ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS: DAY FIVE – Saturday 18th June 2016


2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)


Chesham Stakes Key Trends

13/13 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Ran over 6f last time out (8 won)
11/13 – Had just 1 previous career run
10/13 – Were foaled in March or earlier
9/13 – Won their previous race
8/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/13 – Irish trained-winners
9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
7 of the last 10 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

3.05 - Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f


Wolferton Handicap Recent Winners

2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)

Wolferton Handicap Key Trends

11/13 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
10/13 – Aged 4 years-old
10/13 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
10/13 – Carried 8-11 or more
9/13 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/13 – Had run at Ascot before
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
7/13 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden
2/13 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or bigger
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

3.40 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f


Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

13/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/13 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
12/13 – Placed last time out
11/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/13 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (5)
9/13 – Had run at Ascot before
8/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 6 winners)
5/13 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
5/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
9 of the last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
no winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Telescope won the race in 2014

4.20 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f


Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)

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Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

11/12 – Previous distance (6f) winners
10/12 – Failed to win their last race
9/12 – Aged 5 or younger
9/12 – Had run at Ascot before
9/12 – Previous Group Race winners
8/12 – Returned a double-figure price
7/12 – Won by a UK-based yard
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
1/12 – Winning favourite (joint)
5 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred
7 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15.5/1


5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f


Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Ran sixth or better last time out
16/16 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
16/16 – Had no more than 4 runs that season¬¬
15/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Had won a race over 6f before
10/16 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Had run at Ascot before (5 had won here)
6/16 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/16 – Won their previous race
4/16 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
7 of the last 10 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
7 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure drawThe last six winners came from a double-figure stall
In the last 6 runnings all top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 5 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 28 winners returning a double-figure price

5.35 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

11/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/13 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
8/13 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
7/13 – Had run at Ascot before
3/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/13 – Won by a NH yard
3/13 – Irish-trained winners
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
8 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
The last 10 winners ALL came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
9 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Trainers Quotes

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"Coiste Bodhar - Will certainly want the ground to ease further as I feel he is best suited to good-to-soft, or softer. Didn't handle the track at Newcastle and it wasn't soft enough at Nottingham when he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Well at home and if the ground is on the slow side he would have a decent e/w claim."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 1st 16/1

"Sarabi - Ran a solid race over 6f last time out after a break. Looks like she will appreciate the step back down to 5f and the ground is of no concern today. Currently looks good each-way value."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 2nd 20/1

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