Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends – 19th Nov 2016

More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the C4 cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock at 3.00, while at Ascot the Coral Hurdle and Stella Artois 1965 Chase top their card  – As always Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends and stats that will help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)

 

2.05 - Stella Artois 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y CH4

12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
10/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/13 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
8/13 – Had won over this trip (fences) or further before
8/13 – Ran at Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
7/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
7/13 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/13 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
6/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/13 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor


2.40 - Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y CH4

14/14 – Priced 7/2 or less
13/14 – Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse
12/14 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
12/14 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
11/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Won their latest race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
10/14 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
9/14 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
8/14 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
7/14 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
5/14 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
4/14 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (all finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
3/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
3/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4 of the last 10 winners were Irish-trained

Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor


3.15 - Shawbrook Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y CH4

10/10 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
10/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
7/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
7/10 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/10 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/10 – Rated 142 or higher
5/10 – Had raced at Ascot before
5/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Dresden won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.50 - Betfair Price Rush Hurdle Cl2 2m CH4

Your first 30 days for just £1

2 previous runnings
Irving (Paul Nicholls) won the race 12 months ago
Both renewals were won by the favourite
Evan Williams has a +£42 level stakes profit with his hurdlers here

 

2.25 - Betfair Exchange "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f177y CH4

11/11 – Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
10/11 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
9/11 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/11 – Rated between 132 and 143
7/11 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
6/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
6/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by David Pipe
2/11 – Trained by Nick Williams
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

3.00 - Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f CH4

11 Previous runnings
9/11 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (6) bred horse
9/11 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/11 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/11 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
8/11 - Placed in the top three in their last race
8/11 - Won a Grade One chase previously
7/11 - Raced at Haydock previously
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
5/11 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/11 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 - Raced at Aintree last time out
4/11 – Won their latest race
The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 6/1
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012


3.35 – Better Value With Betfair Handicap Chase Cl2 3m24y CH4

9 previous runs
9/9 – French (4) or Irish (5) bred
9/9 – Aged 9 or younger
7/9 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Had won 2-3 times over fences before
6/9 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
5/9 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
5/9 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/9 – Carried 11-11 or more in weight
4/9 –Winning distance – head or shorter
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/9 – Winning favourite

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Minella On Line - First run back, but he's in great form and we have dropped him back in trip. He works very well at home so I'm hopeful of a good run."
Oliver Sherwood

14/11/16 1st 7/4

"Gores Island - Hoping for a good run from Gores Island, course winner and looks like he has Comeonginger to beat - e/w chances if all 8 stand their ground. "
Gary Moore

14/11/16 2nd 4/1

"Baron Alco - Working well and very pleased with him - should have every chance if he goes clear with just Alan King's to beat. "
Gary Moore

14/11/16 1st 4/7

"Frazer Canyon - Ran a lot better last time at Exeter so there are signs he's going the right way. Down another 4lbs for that and we think the first-time tongue-tie on here will be a big help. Step up slightly in trip a plus too, so would not be shocked to see him run a lot better with place claims on the cards."
Tim Vaughan

13/11/16 2nd 22/

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