Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 1st July 2017

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh -  As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you narrow down the fields, and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Saturday 1st July 2017

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

2.05 - Betway Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
13/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
12/15 – Didn’t win their previous race
12/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/15 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
Bateel (8/11) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

2.40 – Betway Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Never raced at the track before
13/15 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
13/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
9/15 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/15 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/15 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/15 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Nations Alexandar (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.15 - Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

13/15 – Won over 7f before
13/15 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
13/15 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/15 – Aged 5 or younger
10/15 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/15 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
4/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 6 runnings)
Breton Rock (11/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Betfred ‘Celebrating 50 Years Of Success’ Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Had won over 6f before
11/15 – Had won between 1-4 times before
10/15 – Rated 90 or less
10/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/15 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15- Ran at York last time out
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15 – Won last time out
Amazour (6/1) won the race 12 months ago
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 10-15

2.25 - Betfred TV Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Had won over 6f before
14/15 – Unplaced last time out
13/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
10/15 – Yet to win a Group race
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/15 – Aged 5 or older
7/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/15 – Won last time out
Markaz (9/2) won the race 12 months ago
Danzeno won the race in 2014 and was third 12 months ago
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)

3.00 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV

One previous running
Dannyday (7/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Marco Botti has a 25% record at the track with his older horses
Trainer Keith Dalgleish is only 3 from 53 (6%) with his older horses at the track Jockey
Paul Hanagan has a 20% strike-rate riding older horses at the track Jockey
Paul Mulrennan has just a 5% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves has just a 4% record riding older horses at the track

3.30 – Stobart Rail Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

14/15  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
14/15 – Finished fifth or better last time out
13/15 – Came from stall 14 or lower
13/15 – Aged 6 or younger
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/15 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/15 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/15 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/15 – Won their previous race
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 9 winners)
3/15 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/15 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 14/1
Note: The 2016 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

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Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

5.20 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

14/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
12/14 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/14 – Won a Group race before
12/14 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
12/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Failed to win their last race
10/14 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
10/14 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
7/14 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/14 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/14 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1

 

 

 

 

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