Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 20th April 2024

The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV, including the Greenham Stakes and, like always, we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.

While it’s also Scottish Grand National Day up at Ayr – a race trainer Christian Williams has won for the last two years and is sure to be well represented again.

The ITV horse racing cameras are at the Scottish track to take in five races live.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

20/20 – Aged 6 or younger
19/20 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Had won between 2-5 times before
18/20 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/20 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/20 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
13/20 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/20 – Had won a Group race before
7/20 – Raced at Newbury last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 9)
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Jockey Jim Crowley (3) and Ryan Moore (2) have won 5 of the last 9
8 of the last 11 winners drawn in stalls 4 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 6/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

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2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
17/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
17/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
17/20 – Having their first run of the season
16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/20 – Drawn 5 or higher
15/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Had won at Newbury before
7/20 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
5/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/20 – Trained by the Channon yard
2/20 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/20 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

2.40 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

19/20 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
18/20 – Having their first run of the season
17/20 – Won at Listed class or better before
16/20 – Won between 2-4 times before
15/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
11/20 – Had won a Group race before
10/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Had won over 7f before
9/20 – Winning favourites
9/20 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/20 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/20 – Irish-trained
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
James Doyle has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners
8 of the last 10 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford


3.15 – OLBG Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

20/20 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
17/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
17/20 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
16/20 – Won over at least 1m before
15/20 – Rated between 85-98
13/20 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
14/20 – Unplaced last time out
12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/20 – Unplaced favourites
10/20 – Had run at Newbury before
8/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 10)
2/20 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 9)
2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 4)
1/20 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.15 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m 1/2f ITV

19/19 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
17/19 – Aged 9 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
16/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Rated between 127-139
13/19 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/19 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
11/19 – Had run at Ayr before
4/19 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 6 years)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

1.50 – CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m ITV

12/12 – Aged 9 or younger
12/12 – No more than 3 chase wins
11/12 – French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/12 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
8/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Had run at the track before
3/12 – Winning favourites
Trainer Dan Skelton has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2.25 – Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

20/20 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
17/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
16/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
16/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
16/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
15/20 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Rated 135 or higher
11/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/20 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
10/20 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/20 – Irish bred
6/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/20 – Trained by the Philip Hobbs yard
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
Rubaud (7/2 fav) won the race in 2023
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

3.00 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Seafield Trophy Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo+) 3m 1/2f

10/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/10 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
6/10 – Aged 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Had run at Ayr before (2 winners)
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1
Sabrina won the race 12 months ago


3.35 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

19/20 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
18/20 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
17/20 – Aged 8 or older
16/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
17/20 – Coming from a different winning yard
16/20 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
15/20 – French or Irish bred
15/20 – Finished in the first three last time out
14/20 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
14/20 – Had won over 3m or further
14/20 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
8/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/20 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/20 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
3/20 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7 winners and 3 wins in total)
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams (last 2)
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
The last two winners won the Eider Chase earlier that season
2 of the last 12 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1
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