Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 20th Feb 2016

This weekend the  C4 cameras will be heading to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday. The Grand National Trial at Haydock and the Ascot Chase (yes, you guessed it, at Ascot) are the feature contests to look out for.

So to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then, as always, Andy Newton's got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

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ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/C4)

1.50 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y CH4

13/13 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
11/13 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Won last time out
9/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/13 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 - Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y CH4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Won 1 or 2 chase wins
4/5 – Raced at either Ascot (2) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
4/5 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
3/5 – Winning distance head or shorter
3/5 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
3/5 – Aged in double-figures
3/5 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
2/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/1

3.00 - Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f110y CH4

9/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
7/10 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or less
6/10 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
5/10 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/10 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/10 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/10 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/10 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y CH4

13/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
12/13 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
11/13 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
11/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
11/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Officially rated 158 or higher
8/13 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/13 – Favourites that won
7/13 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
6/13 – Unplaced in their latest race
5/13 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/13 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
4/13 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
4/13 – Won their last race
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 2/1

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HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/C4)

2.05 - Betfred "Home of Goals Galore" Hurdle (Registered as Rendlesham Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y CH4

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
9/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Rated 145 or higher
9/13 – Placed favourites
8/13 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
5/13 – French-bred
5/13 – Had run at Haydock before
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/13 – Winning favourites
1/13 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

2.40 - Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f CH4

13/13 – UK trained winners
13/13 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10/13 – Aged 10 or younger
10/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/13 – Rated 135 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/13 – Irish-bred winners
4/13 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/13 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/C4)

3.20 - Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y CH4

12/12 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/12 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
11/12 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Rated 155 or higher
7/12 – Winning favourites
7/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
1/12 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/4

 

 

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