Sat TV Trends: 21st April 2012

Paul Nicholls Eyes More National Glory

Can Paul Nicholls follow-up last week's Aintree Grand National win with a victory in the Scottish version on Saturday?

 

NEWBURY (C4/RUK)

2.00 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 1m4f5y

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite
50% of the last 10 winners were aged 4 years-old
9 of the last 10 were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 10 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
3 of the last 10 ran in the Hong Kong Vase last time out
9 of the last 10 were having their first run of the season
9 of the last 10 had previously won over this trip
8 of the last 10 finished fifth or better last time out
Martin Dwyer rode the winner in 2006 & 2009 -
Sir Michael Stoute trained the winner in 2007 & 2010 - FIORENTE
John Gosden has a 36% record with his older horses here – ARTIC COSMOS
Sir Michael Stoute has a 29% record with his older horses at the track - FIORENTE
Ryan Moore is 14 from 74 (19%) when riding older horses here - FIORENTE

 

2.35 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) CH4 Good 7f

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
9 of the last 10 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 to 10 inc
4 of the last 10 had previously won at Newbury
All 10 recent winners were having their first run of the season
8 of the last 10 ran at Newmarket last time out
All 10 finished third or better last time out
5 of the last 10 won their previous race
4 of the last 10 had previously won over 7f
The horse from stall 10 has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
Mick Channon trained the winner in 2002, 2004, 2007 & 2009 – NAYARRA, SAMITAR, FILLIONAIRE
Mick Channon is only 4 from 78 with his 3 year-olds at the track - NAYARRA, SAMITAR, FILLIONAIRE
Mahmood Al Zarooni has 43% record with his 3 year-olds here – PIMPERNEL, MINIDRESS
Sylvester Kirk is just 2 from 47 with his 3 year-olds here - BERWIN
Martin Dwyer is just 4 from 59 when riding 3 year-olds at the course – MY PROPELLER

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3.10 – AON Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) CH4 Good 7f

4 of the last 10 went to the favourite
All 10 recent winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Richard Hannon has won the race in 2002, 2007, 2008 & 2010 – BRONTERRE
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners finished third or better last time out
7 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season
4 of the last 10 had previously won a race at Newbury
6 of the last 10 had won over 7f before
5 of the last 10 won their last race
Mick Channon is only 3 from 78 with his 3 year-old runners here - TIDENTIME
Clive Cox is only 3 from 49 with his 3 year-old runners at the track – LETHAL FORCE
Mahmood Al Zarooni is 3 from 7 with his 3 year-olds at the course – MIGHTY AMBITION
Shane Kelly is 3 from 12 when riding 3 year-olds at the track – CASPAR NETSCHER


3.45 –
Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Cup (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) CH4 Good 1m

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 runnings (joint)
7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 years-old
All 10 recent winners were aged 6 or younger
6 of the last 10 winners carried 8-12 or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/1
9 of the last 10 failed to win their previous race
6 of the last 10 had a previous run that same season
9 of the last 10 winners hadn’t won before at the track
6 of the last 10 had won over this trip before
All 10 recent winners came from a double-figure stall
Richard Hannon is only 3 from 59 with his older horses here
Sir Michael Stoute has a 29% with his older horses here
Jimmy Fortune is only 1 from 52 when riding older horses here
Neil Callan is just 1 from 34 when riding older horses here
Hayley Turner is 5 from 23 when riding 4+year-olds (+£53) at the course


AYR (C4/RUK)


2.15 –
Arcadia Consulting William Dickie & Mary Robertson Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good 2m4f

3 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 joint)
All 10 recent winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2002, 2003 & 2007 -
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2003 & 2007
No real age trend with 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9 year-old all winning in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 finished first or second last time out
8 of the last 10 ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Aintree (5) last time out
Lucinda Russell has a 21% record with her chasers here
Pauline Robson has a 38% record with her chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls is 0 from 18 with his chasers at the course
Peter Buchanan has a 21% record when riding over fences here
Timmy Murphy has a 24% record when riding over fences at the track


2.50 –
Isle of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4
Good 2m

4 of the last 10 were won by the favourite (1 joint)
9 of the last 10 returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
All 10 recent winners carried 10-13 or less
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
No real age trend with 5, 6, 7 & 9 year-olds all winning in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 came third of better last time out
5 of the last 10 won their previous race
4 of the last 10 winners ran at Aintree last time out
Donald McCain has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the course
Jason Maguire has a 32% record when riding hurdlers at the track


3.25 -
Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good 4m110y

No winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
All 10 recent winners were aged 8 or older
9 of the last 10 carried 10-9 or less in weight
80% of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
7 of the last 10 came third or better in their last race
None of the last 10 winners were aged 11 or older
10 of the last 11 winners had fallen or unseated only once or less previously
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 1992, 1994 & 2009
Paul Nicholls won the race in 1997 and had seconds in 2005 & 2006
Donald McCain has a 37% record over fences at the track
Lucinda Russell has a 21% record with her chasers at the course
Andrew Parker has a 36% with his chasers at the course
Nigel Twiston-Davies is 2 from 6 with his chasers at the track
Brian Harding has a 32% (+£68) record when riding over fences here
Timmy Murphy has  24% record when riding over fences here

 

Ayr trainer and jockey stats correct at 19th April 2012

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