Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 21st Jan 17

It’s off to Haydock Park and Ascot this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action – like all big race days we've got all the main races covered from a trends and stats angle…….


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.50 - OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
7/8 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
7/8 – From the top 4 in the betting
7/8 – Later ran in that season’s David Nicholson Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
7/8 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
6/8 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
6/8 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/8 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Newbury (2) in their last race
5/8 – Favourites placed
4/8 – Won their last race
4/8 – Winning Favourites
3/8 – French bred
3/8 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/8 – Aged 6 years-old
2/8 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/8 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/8 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 3 runnings


2.25 – Keltbray Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

8/10 – Priced 11/2 or bigger in the betting
8/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
8/10 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/10 – Aged 7 or younger
7/10 – Officially rated 139 or higher
7/10 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
6/10 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – French bred
6/10 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
5/10 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
5/10 – Had raced at Ascot previously
4/10 – Won their last race
4/10 – Aged 6 years-old
3/10 – Trained by David Pipe
3/10 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/10 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/10 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/10 – Favourites (1 co)
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock


3.00 – Berkshire Community Foundation Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/14 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
13/14 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
12/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
12/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
10/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
9/14 – Won their last race
9/14 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 2 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (26 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 7/2

Note:

2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 – Renewal at Cheltenham


3.35 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

11/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
10/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Either French (3) or Irish (6) bred
8/11 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
8/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/11 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/11 – Aged 8 or younger
5/11 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
5/11 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/11 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/11 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
2/11 – Trained by Richard Rowe
1/11 – Won their last race
1/11 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10/10 – Aged 7 or younger
10/10 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
9/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Aged 5 years-old
6/10 – Had raced at Haydock previously
6/10 – Won their last race
4/10 – Winning Favourites
4/10 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/10 – French bred
2/10 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/10 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby


2.40 – stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

11/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
11/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
9/11 – Finished in the top three in their last race
9/11 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
9/11 -  From the top 3 in the betting
9/11 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
8/11 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
8/11 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
8/11 – Either French (3) or Irish (5) bred
7/11 – Aged 7 or younger
7/11 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (2) last time out
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/11 – Won their last race
1/11 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle


3.15 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

13/13 – Aged 8 or older
13/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/13 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
12/13 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
12/13 – Had run within the last 36 days
10/13 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
9/13 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
9/13 – Won at Haydock previously
9/13 – Favourites unplaced
9/13 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
8/13 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
8/13 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
8/13 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/13 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
6/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
6/13 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
5/13 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/13 – Won over fences at Haydock before
4/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/13 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/13 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/13 – Won their last race
1/13 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Scribner Creek - Won well two starts ago here, but pulled a bit too hard last time out over further. The drop back in trip should help as they should be going a bit quicker which should help him not race too freely. The plan is to drop him in and come with a run and should not be far away. Doesn't look much value though, but we'd be disappointed if he's not in the frame."
Mark Loughnane

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10/01/17 3rd 11/2

"What Usain - All three career wins have been here at the track - only second run for us so still finding our feet with the horse but wasn't beaten far last time at Newcastle over a mile and a repeat of that effort would see him go close. But draw 12 not ideal so might need a bit of luck from there. Tough race, but each-way claims if not getting into too much traffic problems."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 2nd 12/1

"Call Out Loud - Better last time on second run back so seems to be slowly blowing the cobwebs away. More needed up in grade here off the same mark, but trying the first-time visor here as took a hold last time - hopefully this will settle him better. Stays further too so that will help down the long straight."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 1st 10/1

"Among Angels - Drop in class and the drop in trip here are both things in his favour. The horse is in great form at home and would not be shocked to see him run well at a fair each-way price."
Mark Loughnane

10/01/17 2nd 7/2

"Big Amigo - Won well the last day here over CD - has come out of that race very well and despite a 6lb penalty everything is in place for a big run. No reason why he can't go very close again, but, in truth, we'll be a bit disappointed if he can't follow-up."
Mark Loughnane

10/01/17 1st 9/4

"Mithqaal - A nice prize here and we look to have a decent chance. This horse loved the surface last time when dotting up by 2 lengths over 7f. The step up to a mile should be fine and a 6lb rise for that looks fair. Several others that like the surface too, so a bit more needed but is a horse certainly capable of taking this and one of my best chances on the day."
Mick Appleby

10/01/17 1st 4/6

"Pancake Day - Ran a cracker last time when third here over 6f. Been given a chance with same mark and grade. Drop down to 5f is no problem and in good form at home. Hands and Heels race, but we claim a further 7lbs so should be giving his jockey a nice run and should not be far away."
David C Griffiths

10/01/17 1st 4/1

 

 

 

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