Sat TV Trends: 21st Jan 2012

Nicholls Has A Great VC Chase Record

It’s the 25th Anniversary of the Victor Chandler Chase this Saturday, but can trainer Paul Nicholls win the race for a fourth year in a row - this time with Al Ferof?

 

ASCOT (ATR/C4)

2.05 - 1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 3m

4 previous runnings
Only 1 winning favourite
ALL 4 winners returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
ALL 4 were aged 9 or YOUNGER
ALL 4 ran their last race at either Haydock or Newbury
2 of the last 4 won their previous race
3 of the last 4 hadn’t won over 3 miles before winning this
The last 2 winners were 6 year-olds
Emma Lavelle won the race in 2008 – KENTFORD GREY LADY
Paul Nicholls is 9 from 47 (19%) with this hurdlers here – VIOLIN DAYS
Barry Geragthy is 15 from 43 (35%) when riding over hurdles at Ascot – OUR GIRL SALLY
Paul Moloney is 4 from 19 (21%, +£43) when riding over hurdles here – CLOUDY SPIRIT

 

2.35 - Bet Mobile At BetVictor.com Holloway´s Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good 2m3f110y

1 winning favourite in the last 6 runnings
5 of the last 6 returned 6/1 or BIGGER in the betting
ALL six recent winners were aged 6 or OLDER
6 year-olds have won 50% of the last 6 runnings
4 of the last 6 carried 10-11 or MORE
3 of the last 6 won their previous race
Nicky Henderson is 26 from 95 (27%) with his hurdlers here – JOSEPH LISTER
Dr Richard Newland is 3 from 10 (30%) with his hurdlers at the track – ROWAN TIGER
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 1 from 31 with his hurdlers at Ascot – TARA ROSE
Gary Moore is only 2 from 41 when running hurdlers at the course - ORZARE
Barry Geragthy is 15 from 43 (35%) when riding hurdlers here - SHOREACRES
Sam Thomas is 0 from 18 when riding over hurdles at the track - CICERON
Wayne Hutchinson is 4 from 24, but also boasts an impressive +£34 level stakes profit over hurdles here – SMAD PLACE

Your first 30 days for just £1

 
3.10 - 25th Anniversary of The Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As Clarence House Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good 2m1f

50% of the last 10 runnings went to the favourite, including the last 3 runnings
8 of the last 10 were priced 5/1 or SHORTER
70% of the last 10 won their last race
4 of the last 10 ran at Wetherby last time
4 of the last 10 ran at Sandown Park last time
An 8 year-old has won 9 of the last 21 runnings
Since 1989 only 2 winners were aged in double-figures
Paul Nicholls has won the race for the last 3 years, and 4 times in all  - AL FEROF
Nicky Henderson has won the race three times (1996, 2004 & 2006) – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2009 & 2010 – AL FEROF
Nicky Henderson is 11 from 32 (34%) with his chasers here – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Colin and Joe Tizzard are both 0 from 12 over fences here at Ascot – OISEAU DE NUIT
Barry Geragthy is 10 from 25 (40%) when riding over fences here – FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Ruby Walsh is 7 from 20 (35%) over fences at the track – AL FEROF
Noel Fehily is 8 from 24 when riding over fences at the course - GAUVAIN

 
3.45 - BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) CH4 Good 2m5f110y

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
A 7 year-old has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
7 of the last 8 carried 10-13 or LESS
5 of the last 8 winners had won over this trip or further in the past
5 of the last 8 finished third or better in their last race
Only 1 of the last 8 won their previous race
Richard Rowe’s TATENEN won this 12 months ago
Paul Nicholls won this in 2005 – NOLAND
The Pipe stable won the race in 2002 – I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES
Nicky Henderson is 11 from 32 (34%) with his chasers here - SURFING
Martin Keighley is 2 from 4 with his chasers at Ascot – ALL FOR FREE
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 1 from 32 with his chasers at the track – MAHOGANY BLAZE
Barry Geragthy is 10 from 25 (40%) when riding over fences here – SURFING
Ruby Walsh is 7 from 20 (35%) over fences at the track – NOLAND

 


HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

 
1.10 - Betfair. Don´t Settle For Less Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Altcar Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) RUK Heavy 2m4f

4 prevous runnings
3 of the last 4 went to the favourite
ALL 4 aged 8 or YOUNGER
2 of the last 3 were aged 7 years-old
ALL 4 had won over this trip or further in the past
ALL 4 finished third or better last time out
2 of the last 4 won their previous race
Donald McCain won the race in 2009 –OUR MICK
Donald McCain is 9 from 36 (25%) with his chasers here – OUR MICK
Richard Lee is 0 from 12 with his chasers here – MILO MILAN
Jason Maguire is 7 from 24 (29%) when riding over fences here – OUR MICK


1.45 -
StanJames.com Champion Hurdle Trial Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Heavy 2m

3 of the last 8 runnings went to the favourite
The last 5 runnings went to either a 5 or 6 year-old
6 of the last 8 returned 11/4 or SHORTER in the betting
Only 1 of the last 8 won their previous race
3 of the last 8 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Alan King won the race 12 months ago – TORPHICHEN
Donald McCain is 19 from 79 (24%) with his hurdlers here – DESERT CRY
Jason Maguire is 13 from 44 (30%) when riding over hurdles here -  DESERT CRY

2.20 - StanJames.com Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £5,848 CH4 RUK  Heavy 3m

No previous runnings
Donald McCain is 19 from 79 (24%) with his hurdlers here – REINDEER DIPPIN
Jason Maguire is 13 from 44 (30%) when riding over hurdles here -  REINDEER DIPPIN
Sue Smith is only 1 from 49 with her hurdlers here - TIPPERING

 
3.30 - Peter Marsh Chase (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Heavy 3m

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
6 of the last 8 returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
2 of the last 4 were won by a double-figure aged horse
7 of the last 8 winners carried 11-3 or LESS
3 of the last 8 were previous course winners at Haydock
5 of the last 8 had won over this trip or further before
5 of the last 8 ran at Wetherby last time out
David Pipe won the prize in 2010 – CONSIGLIERE
Venetia Williams won the race in 2007 – MON MONE
Paul Nicholls has a 27% (6 from 22) record with his chasers here – TAKE THE BREEZE
Malcolm Jefferson is 3 from 14 (21%) with his chasers at the track – KING FONTAINE
Nigel Twiston-Davies is only 2 from 33 with his chasers here – CRESENT ISLAND
Jason Maguire is 7 from 24 (29%) when riding over fences here – CRESENT ISLAND

 
4.05 - Betfair Graduation Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £12,660 CH4 Heavy 2m5f

No previous runnings
Donald McCain is 9 from 36 (25%, +£15) with his chasers here - GLENWOOD KNIGHT
Jason Maguire is 7 from 24 (29%, +£15) when riding over fences here – GLENWOOD KNIGHT
Ferdy Murphy is only 1 from 22 with his chasers at the track – DEN OF INIQUITY
Graham Lee is just 3 from 34 when riding over fences at the course - DEN OF INIQUITY

 

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5 replies
  1. simon thould
    simon thould says:

    Channel 4 is showing haydock races 2:20, 3:30 and 4:05, not 1:10 nor 1:45. Any chance of the trends for those ( 3:30 is done ok) ?

  2. Andy Newton
    Andy Newton says:

    I’m on it Simon – sorry, bit of a mix-up yesterday with which races they were showing – give me 30mins

  3. simon thould
    simon thould says:

    Hi Andy, Apologies – you were right, the programme guide I’d seen was wrong! Todays paper concurs with you. Fingers crossed !!

  4. simon thould
    simon thould says:

    Hang on! Racing Post online and Daily Mail tv guide differ from Daily Mail racing ????
    Looks like it WILL be Haydock – as I said originally!?

    • Andy Newton
      Andy Newton says:

      Yeah, I think it’s a bit messed up in a few papers/sites etc – anyway, we’ve covered most of the Haydock card from a trends angle, so that should cover it – Good luck today and thanks again Simon

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