Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 21st May 2016

Another huge day this Saturday with the C4 cameras heading to Haydock, York & Goodwood, plus it’s also Irish 2,000 Guineas day over at the Curragh – As always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends & stats angle.

 

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Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.15 - Al Basti Equiworld Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4

11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/12 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/12 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/12 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/12 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1


2.50 - Intrinsic New For 2016 at Hedgeholme Stud Tapster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

9/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/9 – Finished 4th or better last time out
7/9 – Had not run at the track before
6/9 – Had won a Group race before
6/9 – Had won between 2-4 times in the past
6/9 – Had won over 1m4f before
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
6/9 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/9 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/9 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/2


3.25 - Al Basti Equiworld Supporting Greatwood Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

3 previous runnings
No winning favourite
All three winners returned 8/1 to 12/1
All three winners carried between 8-0 and 8-4
Mark Johnston, Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Mark Johnston has a +£39 level stakes profit with his 3 year-olds here
Mick Channon is just 4 from 83 with his 3 year-olds here
Roger Varian is just 1 from 29 with his 3 year-olds here

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.30 - Three Sisters Handicap Cl2 2m45y CH4

Just 2 previous runnings
Both winners aged between 4-5 years-old
No winning favourite
Both winners carried 8-13 or less
Richard Fahey is just 4 from 121 with his older horses here


3.05 - Betfred Mobile Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/13 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/13 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/13 – Had raced within the last month
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Placed last time out
10/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/13 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
4/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

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3.40 - EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) Cl1 6f CH4

12/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Aged 5 or younger
11/12 – Never raced at Haydock before
9/12 – Rated between 98-105
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 2-9 (inc)
9/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or bigger in the betting
8/12 – Won just 1-2 times before
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Had won at Listed (or better) class before
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Ed McMahon
2/12 – Ridden by Steve Drowne
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1


4.10 - Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f CH4

13/14 – Trained in the UK
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
11/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Raced within the last 2 months
9/14 – Placed third or better last time out
8/14 – Favourites that were placed
8/14 – Had won a Group race before
7/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Favourites
3/14 – Won their latest race
2/14 – Owned by Qatar Racing (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 6 or lower


York Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.40 – weddingmates.co.uk Grand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f CH4

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged between 4-7
10/11 – Had raced in the last 2 months
9/11 – Officially rated 103 or higher
9/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Finished fifth or better last time out
7/11 – Drawn in stalls 1-4
7/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least 4 times before (flat)
5/11 – Had raced at the track before
5/11 – Had won over at least 1m6f in the past
4/11 – Favourites
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average SP in the last 11 runnings is 6/1
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat
Note: The 2006 & 2007 running was staged at Musselburgh

3.50 - titanbet.co.uk Spring Sprint (Handicap Stakes) Cl2 5f CH4

Only 2 previous runnings
No winning favourite
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 13 from 266 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 95 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 23 (4%) with this older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 49 (6%) with this older horses at the track
Trainer David Nicholls is just 3 from 67 (4%) with this older horses at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is just 1 from 48 when riding older horses at the track

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


5.05 - Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (Group 2) 6f

10/12 – Aged 4, 5 or 6
10/12 – Retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least 5 times before
8/12 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
7/12 – Won by a UK-based trainer
7/12 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
7/12 – Had raced at the Curragh before
7/12 – Had won a Group race before
6/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Raced at York last time out
3/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winners from stall 2
2/12 – Favourites
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 6/1


5.40 - Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m

14/14 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
13/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
12/14 – Had won over either 7f or 8f before
11/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Favourites that finished in the top two
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/14 – Irish bred
8/14 – Had won a Group 1 race before
8/14 – Had run at the Curragh before
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Trained by a UK-based stable
7/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1 Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008) & Gleneagles (2015) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 4/1

 

 

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