Sat TV Trends: 21st Sept 2024

It’s Ayr Gold Cup Day in Scotland (Ayr racecourse) this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 9 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

Did you know – 18 of the last 23 Ayr Gold Cup winners FAILED to win their last race, while 14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher.

Use our key trends to whittle down the runners and help find the best profiles of past winners.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Livescore Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV

12/12 - Won at least twice before
12/12 - Rated between 88 and 96
11/12 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 - Won previously over 1m
10/12 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/12 - Aged between 3-5 years-old
9/12 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/12 - Carried 9-3 or less in weight
8/12 - Drawn between stalls 3 and 9 (inc)
8/12 - Placed favourites
7/12 - Irish bred
7/12 - Had run at Ayr before
4/12 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/12 - Trained by David O’Meara
2/12 - Winning favourites
Revich won the race in 2021 & 2023 and 3rd in 2022

1.50 – Livescore Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

12/13 – Didn’t win last time out
12/13 – Yet to race at Ayr
12/13 – Won over 1m2f or more
12/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
11/13 – Rated between 101 and 111
10/13 – Won 3 or more times before
10/13 – Irish bred
9/13 – Aged 4 or older
8/13 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 11)
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/13 – Trained by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 9)
Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Maktoum has won the last 2 runnings

2.25 – Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

21/21 – Carried 8-11 or more
19/21 – Previous winners over 6f
18/21 – Aged 5 or younger
17/21 – Carried 9-0 or more
16/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
16/21 – Winning distance 1 length or less
16/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
14/21 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/21 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
13/21 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/21 – Unplaced favourites
9/21 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
5/21 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
4/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Winning Favourites
3/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/21 – Filly or mare winners
Tim Easterby has won 2 of the last 5
Wobwobwob won the race in 2023
7 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 11 or lower

3.00 – Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

19/21 – Had never raced at Ayr before
18/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
17/21 – Previous winners over 6f
17/21 – Had won one or two times before
15/21 – Winning distance 1 length or further
15/21 – Had 3 or more runs that season
15/21 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/21 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
12/21 – Placed favourites
11/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/21 – Won last time out
4/21 – Winning favourites
3/21 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/21 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last four runnings

3.35 – Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

23/23 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
20/23 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
20/23 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
18/23 – Had won over 6f before
18/23 – Failed to win their last race
16/23 – Carried 9-1 or more
16/23 – Came from a double-figure stall
15/23 – Rated 90-101
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/23 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/23 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/23 – Had 7 or more runs that season
12/23 – Unplaced favourites
12/23 – Ran at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
12/23 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/23 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
4/23 – Winning favourites (or joint) (5 winning favs since 1980)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of the last 18)
2/23 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 11)
2/23 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 10)
0/23 – Filly or mare winners
The last 7 winners were drawn 12+
Trainer Karl Burke has won the race twice (1994 & 1998)
14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 19 winners came from stall 8)
16 of the last 19 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.30 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV

21/22 – Raced four or more times that season
20/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
18/22 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
17/22 – Won a Listed or Group race before
17/22 – Won over 5f previously
17/22 - Aged 5 or younger
16/22 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
14/22 – Won 4 or more times
13/22 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/22 – Previous Group race winners
7/22 – Won their last race
7/22 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 4 of last 11 winners)
6/22 – Favourites
5/22 – Mare winners
5 of the last 6 winners drawn 5 or lower
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners

2.05 – Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m 5 1/2f ITV

1 previous runnings
Not So Sleepy won the race in 2023
Trainer William Haggas has a 31% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 20% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 1 from 65 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is just 2 from 47 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

2.40 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

13/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Won over 1m2f or further before
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
11/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/14 – Won 3 or 4 times
10/14 – Drawn 8 or lower
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Rated between 92 and 97 (inc)
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/14 – Had run at Newbury before

3.15 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV

17/22 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
17/22 – Won from draw 5 or lower
17/22 – Won over 6f previously
16/22 – Raced 3 or more times
16/22 – Favourites placed
14/22 – Foaled in March or later
13/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/22 – Favourites (or joint) that won
8/22 – Won exactly two races before
8/22 – Won by an April foal
7/22 – Won their previous race
5/22 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/22 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/22 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of the last 8)
2/22 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of the last 5)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/22 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/22 – Filly winners
7 of the last 9 winners from stalls 3 or lower

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