Sat TV Trends – 22nd Oct

Master Minded Returns at Aintree on Saturday

Master Minded is the star attraction in Saturday’s Old Roan Chase at Aintree, but did you know in the short seven year race history there’s only been one winning favourite? Andy Newton gives you all the stats that matter ahead of Saturday’s LIVE C4 action.

DONCASTER (C4 & ATR)

2.00 - JOIN RACINGPOST.COM MEMBERS´ CLUB HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) Winner £12,450 CH4 Good 5f

The classy Hoof It won this race 12 months ago
30% of the last 9 winners came from stall 1
4 of the last 9 came from stall 13 or HIGHER
5 of the last 9 winners ran at either Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
6 of the last 9 winners finished 4th or better in their previous race
2 winning favs in the last 9 renewals
5 of the last 9 returned a double-figure price
5 of the last 9 were aged 4 years-old
ALL 9 recent winners were aged 5 or YOUNGER
6 of the last 9 carried 8-12 or LESS
Richard Fahey won this in 2009 – MARINE COMMANDO
Ron Harris’ JUDGE ‘N JURY won this race in 2008
Ron Harris also runs SECRET WITNESS
Eric Alston won this in 2005 – FOXY MUSIC
Bryan Smart won this race in 2002 – EXCEL BOLT
Roger Varian is 1 from 5 with his 3 year-olds here - STEPS
Richard Fahey is only 4 from 63 with his 3 year-olds at the track – MARINE COMMANDO
Bryan Smart is just 1 from 35 with this 3 year-olds at the course – EXCEL BOLT
Ron Harris has a 21% strike-rate (+£25) with his older horses here – SECRET WITNESS & JUDGE ‘N JURY
Kevin Ryan is only 4 from 112 with his older horses at Doncaster – RACY

2.30 - BET THROUGH THE RACING POST APP STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE DONCASTER STAKES) (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £12,728 CH4 Good 6f

5 of the last 9 runnings went to the favourite
7 of the last 9 returned 5/1 or SHORTER in the betting
5 of the last 9 won their previous race
4 of the last 9 winners ran at York last time out
Brian Meehan won this in 2005 and 2010 – BALLESTEROS
Richard Hannon has a 16% record (15 from 95) with his 2 year-olds here – GUSTO & DREAMWRITER
Mick Channon is only 1 from 51 with his juveniles at the track – MISS LAHAR
Paul Hanagan is only 8 from 60 on 2 year-olds, but does have a +£34 level stakes profit on them too – SON DU SILENCE
Jamie Spencer has a 22% record when riding 2 year-olds here – PARC DE LAUNAY
Frankie Dettori is 13 from 44 (30%) when riding juveniles at the course - BALLESTEROS
Dane O’Neill has a 21% record when getting the leg-up on 2 year-olds here - GUSTO
Jimmy Fortune is only 2 from 40 when riding 2 year-olds at the track – CHUNKY DIAMOND

3.00 - RACING POST TROPHY (GROUP 1) (ENTIRE COLTS & FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £131,567 CH4 Good 1m

6 of the last 10 went to the favourite
6 of the last 10 won their previous race
9 of the last 10 finished third or better in their last race
6 of the last 10 ran in a Group race in their previous race
4 of the last 10 won in Ireland last time out
3 of the last 10 winners ran at Newmarket in their previous race
7 of the last 10 returned 9/2 or SHORTER in the betting
3 of the last 10 winners went onto win the Epsom Derby the following season (HIGH CHAPARRAL, MOTIVATOR & AUTHORIZED)
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times in the last 10 years, and 5 times in all – LEARN & CAMELOT
4 of the last 10 runnings went to an Irish-trained runner
Trainer John Gosden has never won this race - FENCING
Godolphin have won this race in 1996 & 2007 – ENCKE
Frankie Dettori has won this in 2006 & 2010 – ENCKE
Jeremy Noseda has a 29% strike-rate with his 2 year-olds here - TALWAR
Mahmood Al Zarooni is 5 from 14 (36%) with his juveniles at the track - ENCKE
Frankie Dettori has a 30% record when riding juveniles at Doncaster - ENCKE

*Note: 2006 renewal was run at Newbury

AINTREE (C4 & RUK)

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3.30 - BETFRED MONET´S GARDEN OLD ROAN CHASE (LIMITED HANDICAP) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m4f

Seven previous runnings
Only 1 winning favourite
6 of the last 7 recent winners failed to win their previous race
3 of the last 7 were previous course winners at Aintree
6 of the last 7 won this on their seasonal reappearance
No real age trend with 6,8,9,10,11 & 12 year-olds all winning in the last 7 years
Paul Nicholls and owner Clive Smith won this in 2006 – MASTER MINDED
Peter Bowen has a +£21 level stakes profit with his chasers here – RIO GAEL
Paul Nicholls is only 9 from 79 and is -£34 with his chasers at the track – MASTER MINDED

NEWBURY (C4 & RUK)

2.15 - WORTHINGTON´S HIGHFIELD SOCIAL CLUB STAKES (REGISTERED AS HORRIS HILL) (GROUP 3) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £19,281 CH4 Good To Firm 7f

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
All 10 recent winners came from a single-figure stall
6 of the last 10 winners won their previous race
6 of the last 10 ran at either Ascot (2), Newmarket (2) or Goodwood (2) last time out
8 of the last 10 returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
Richard Hannon won this in 2009 – GRAPHIC, PRODUCER & TELL DAD
The Hills yard won this in 2002 – RED ART
John Dunlop is only 2 from 60 (3%) with his 2 year-olds at the track - NAWWAAR
Steve Drowne has a +£50 level stakes profit when riding juveniles at the track – CHARITABLE ART
Shane Kelly has a 22% record (5 from 23) and +£36 when riding 2 year-olds here - MEHDI
Jim Crowley is only 3 from 67 when riding juveniles at the track – RIGHT DIVINE

2.45 - WORTHINGTON´S CHAMPION SHIELD STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE ST SIMON STAKES) (GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £28,355 CH4 Good To Firm 1m4f5y

2 winning favs in the last 10 years (both joint)
8 of the last 10 failed to win their previous race
9 of the last 10 ran in a Listed or better race last time out
6 of the last 10 ran in a Group contest in their previous race
7 of the last 10 ran at Newmarket last time out
7 of the last 10 aged either 3 or 4 years-old
Roger Charlton won this 12 months ago – CLOWANCE
John Gosden landed the prize in 2005 – COLOMBIAN
Mahmood Al Zarooni is 3 from 6 (50%) with his 3 year-olds at the track – FRENCH NAVY
Jeremy Noseda has a 29% (5 from 17) record with his juveniles at the course - THEOLOGY

*Note: 2001 renewal was run at Newmarket

3.15 - TOTEPOOL STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE RADLEY STAKES) (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES) (CLASS 1) (2yo) Winner £12,193 CH4
Good To Firm 7f

4 of the last 9 went to the favourite (2 joint)
ALL 9 recent winners returned 15/2 or SHORTER
ALL 9 finished fourth or better last time out
4 of the last 9 ran at Newmarket in their last race
7 of the last 9 winners came from a single-figure stall
4 of the last 9 ran in a maiden last time out
Richard Hannon won this in 2006 – MY QUEENIE & WHIMSICAL
The Hills yard won this in 2003 & 2005 – SELF CENTRED
Mick Channon took the race in 2004 – SERENE OASIS & FILLIONAIRE
Sir Michael Stoute landed the prize in 2002 – ULTRASONIC
Mick Channon is only 5 from 153 (3%) with his 2 year-olds at the track - SERENE OASIS & FILLIONAIRE
Jim Crowley is only 3 from 67 when riding juveniles at the track – WHIMSICAL
Darryll Holland is just 1 from 28 (4%) on 2 year-olds at the course – RISKY ART
Shane Kelly has a 22% record (5 from 23) and +£36 when riding 2 year-olds here - MENTION

3.45 - TOTESCOOP6 HBLB HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £31,125 CH4 Good To Firm 1m2f6y

3 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint, 1 co)
2 double-figure priced winners
6 of the last 9 came from stall 7 or higher
Only 1 of the last 9 won their previous race
4 of the last 9 ran at York last time out
2 of the last 4 ran at Ascot last time out
ALL 9 recent winners aged either 3 or 4 years-old
7 of the last 9 carried 9-0 or LESS
None of today’s trainers have won the race in the last 9 years
Sir Henry Cecil has a 27% strike-rate (+£37) with his 3 year-olds here – GLENCADAM GOLD
Saeed Bin Suroor has a +£35 level stakes profit with his older horses at the track – WILLING FOE
Ryan Moore has a 22% record when riding older horses at the track - CIRCUMVNET

 

 

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