Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 23rd Dec 2017

It’s the last weekend before Christmas and it looks set to be another decent Saturday of jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Haydock and Ascot for six LIVE races.
So, to help you narrow down the fields and hopefully point you in the direction of a winner or two, here at GeeGeez we've got the big-race trends ahead of each race.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – My Pension Expert Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4

Only 2 previous runnings
Poker School won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2015
No winning favourite in 2 runnings
Both winners returned between 6/1 and 8/1
Both winners aged between 4-6 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with this chasers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his chasers at the track

2.25 – JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m1f ITV4

15/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
15/15 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (5 won, 4 runners-up, 3 unplaced)
13/15 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – French-bred horse
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
11/15 – Won at least 5 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
10/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/15 – Favourites that won
8/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Unowhatimeanharry (6/5 fav) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings - Newbury
2005 running - Chepstow
2004  running -Windsor

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3.00 – Lavazza Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

12/12 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/12 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
8/12 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
7/12 – Won by a French bred horse
7/12 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
4/12 – Aged 7 years-old
4/12 – Priced at double-figure price in the betting
3/12 – Favourite (1 joint)
2/12 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of the last 3)
Regal Encore (20/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

3.35 – Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
14/14 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Had raced within the last 2 months
10/14 – Carried 10-10 or more
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
8/14 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/1
Jolly’s Cracked and Sternrubin dead-headed in the race 12 months ago

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.10 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV

10/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Aged 7 or younger
7/10 – Had won 1-2 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
6/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/10 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (3) last time out
5/10 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Winning Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
Clyne (6/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 6/1

2.45 – Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

10/10 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/10 – Failed to win their last race
9/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
7/10 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
7/10 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/10 – Favourites placed
7/10 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
5/10 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
3/10 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/10 – French bred
2/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/10 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (both unplaced)
6 of the last 9 winners carried 11-0 or more
Broadway Buffalo (5/1) won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 6/1

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