Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 24th March 2018

Another busy day this Saturday with seven LIVE ITV4 races at Newbury and Doncaster. It's National Hunt jumping action at Newbury, while Doncaster get the new turf season under way with the Lincoln Handicap their feature contest. As always, here at GeeGeez we've got it all covered from a trends angle - use these key stats to help narrow down the big fields and find the best profile of past winners.

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/14 – Had won no more than 5 times before
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
9/14 – Had won over 6f before
9/14 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
8/14 – Rated 102+
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Had won at Doncaster before
6 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar

 

2.25 – 32Red Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

14/16 – Carried 8-13 or more
13/16 – Aged 4 years-old
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/16 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
11/16 – Won over a mile before
8/16 – Won from a double-figure draw
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Won a race at Doncaster before
2/16 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 16 years
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden is 0 from 24 (0%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills is 1 from 28 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Declan Carroll is 2 from 45 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

Just 5 previous running
5/5 – Last ran 4+ months ago
5/5 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Rated 108+
4/5 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4 (2 each)
4/5 – Had won 6+ times before
4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/5 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/5 – Won last time out
Trainer Roger Varian has a 29% record with his older horses here
Trainer David Simcock has a 30% record with his older horses here
Trainer Michael Dods is just 1 from 61 (2%) with his older horses here

 

3.35 – 32Red Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/15 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/15 – Placed first or second last time out
6/15 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by John Quinn
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 32 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase Cl3 3m2f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
6/7 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Aged 9 years-old
5/7 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
5/7 – Had won over 3m (or further) before (fences)
4/7 – Had raced over fences at Newbury before
4/7 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
3/7 – Irish bred
1/7 – Winning favourites
1/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

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2.40 – Be Wiser Handicap  Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Won no more than twice over hurdles before
9/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Raced 113 or higher
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/9 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

3.15 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
9/13 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
7/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/13 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/13 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
The last 11 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or less in weight
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Noel Williams has a 43% record (3 from 7) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams is only 1 from 26 (4%) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rebecca Curtis is just 1 from 28 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track

 

 

 

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