Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 25th June 2016

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse - running on their AW track for the first time, while the C4 cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh - as always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (C4 and RUK)


2.45 - Tangent Office Furniture Supporting The AHT Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/14 – Had between 0 and 2 previous runs that season
11/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
9/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Won by the Kremlin House stable
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.20 - Cambridge Magazine Supporting The AHT Empress Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Never raced at the track before
13/14 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
12/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
8/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/14 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
7/14 – Came from stall 4 or lower
5/14 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by the Hannon yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

3.55 - John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4

12/14 – Won over 7f before
12/14 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
12/14 – Had at least 1 run already that season
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/14 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 5 runnings)
3/14 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
Markaz won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2


Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/C4)


2.30 - Betfred Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f CH4

14/14 – Had won over 6f before
13/14 – Unplaced last time out
12/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Yet to win a Group race
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/14 – Aged 5 or older
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/14 – Won last time out
Danzeno won the race in 2014 and was third 12 months ago
8 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just won winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings (and only 3 horses placed)

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.05 - Betfred TV Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

14/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Rated 90 or less
10/14 – Had won between 1-4 times before
9/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/14 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14- Ran at York last time out
2/14 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/14 – Won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
6 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 10-15

Note: Used to be run on the turf

3.40 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y CH4

No previous runnings

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4.15 – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y CH4


Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Northumberland Plate Trends

13/14  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
13/14 – Finished fifth or better last time out
12/14 – Came from stall 14 or lower
12/14 – Aged 6 or younger
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/14 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 8 years)
3/14 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 14/1

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 10 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Eight winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

Note: Used to be run on the turf


Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)


5.20 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f


Recent Irish Derby Winners

2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

13/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
11/13 – Won by an Irish-based yard
11/13 – Won a Group race before
11/13 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Failed to win their last race
9/13 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/13 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
8/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 11 times in all)
6/13 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (2 winners, Australia & Camelot)
3/13 – Previous Group 1 winners
2/13 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon
2/13 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 4/1

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Coiste Bodhar - Will certainly want the ground to ease further as I feel he is best suited to good-to-soft, or softer. Didn't handle the track at Newcastle and it wasn't soft enough at Nottingham when he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Well at home and if the ground is on the slow side he would have a decent e/w claim."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 1st 16/1

"Sarabi - Ran a solid race over 6f last time out after a break. Looks like she will appreciate the step back down to 5f and the ground is of no concern today. Currently looks good each-way value."
Scott Dixon
14/06/16 2nd 20/1

 

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