Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 25th Nov 2017

More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock at 3.00, while the main event at Ascot is the Christy 1965 Chase – As always, we are on hand with all the trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.05 - Christy 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV

13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
11/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/14 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/14 – Favourites placed
9/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
9/14 – Had won over this trip (fences) or further before
9/14 – Ran at Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
7/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/14 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Aged 5 years-old
2/14 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/14 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Royal Regatta won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor

 2.40 - Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV

15/15 – Priced 7/2 or less
13/15 – Won by and Irish (10) or French (3) bred horse
13/15 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
13/15 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
12/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Won their latest race
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
10/15 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
10/15 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
9/15 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
8/15 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
5/15 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 won)
5/15 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both in 2014-15)
4/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
4/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
3/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/15 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 11 winners were Irish-trained
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/4
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor

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3.15 - Shawbrook Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV

11/11 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
10/11 – Had won over fences over this trip (or further) before
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/11 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
7/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/11 – Rated 142 or higher
6/11 – Ran at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Ascot before
6/11 – Placed favourites
4/11 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Gary Moore
Sir De Grugy won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 - Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f ITV

6 previous runnings
5/6 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/6 – Had won over at least 2m2f before
5/6 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
5/6 – Irish bred
5/6 – Had won between 1-2 times before
5/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
2/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 7/1

2.25 - Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

11/12– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
10/12 – Carried 10-10 or more
10/12 – Rated between 132 and 143
7/12 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – French bred
5/12 – Won last time out
5/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/12 – Trained by David Pipe
2/12 – Trained by Nick Williams
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

3.00 - Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV

12 Previous runnings
10/12 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
10/12 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/12 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
9/12 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (6) bred horse
9/12 - Placed in the top three in their last race
9/12 - Won a Grade One chase previously
8/12 - Raced at Haydock previously
8/12 - Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
6/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/12 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/12 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (inc 3 of the last 4)
3/12 - Raced at Aintree last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
4/12 – Won their latest race
The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 6/1
Cue Card has won the race in 2013, 2015 & 2016
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012

3.35 – Best Odds Guaranteed With Betfair Handicap Chase Cl2 3m24y ITV

10/10 – French (4) or Irish (6) bred
10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Carried 11-1 or more
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had won 2-3 times over fences before
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
6/10 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/10 – Carried 11-11 or more in weight
4/10 –Winning distance – head or shorter
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites

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