Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends 26th Nov 2016

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Fighting Fifth Hurdle the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always we’ve got all the C4 TV trends to help you find the best winning profile.

 

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Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/RUK)


1.30 - Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y CH4

11/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
9/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
8/11 – Raced at Wincanton (3), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
8/11 – Officially rated between 126-130
8/11 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
7/11 – Aged 7 or younger
6/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
4/11 – French bred
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

 

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f More4

Four previous runnings
3 of the last 4 winners aged 5 years-old
No winning favourite
All winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Wayne Hutchinson is just 2 from 44 riding over hurdles at the track

 

2.40 bet365 Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y CH4

10/10 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
9/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
8/10 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Irish, French or German bred
8/10 – Won just 1-2 times in the past
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/10 – Officially rated between 126-134
5/10 – Aged 5 years-old
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
5/10 – Had raced at Newbury before
4/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/10 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1


3.10 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m2f110y

13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
12/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
11/14 – Had run at Newbury before (7 had won over fences there)
11/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/14 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
11/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/14 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
10/14 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
9/14 – Rated between 140 and 151
8/14 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Had a previous run that season
7/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 4)
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (26 runnings) there have been 13 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old

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3.45 - bet365 Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f CH4

12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Officially rated between 126-135
10/14 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
9/14 – French bred
9/14 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
8/14 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/14 – Placed in their last race
8/14 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
8/14 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
8 of the last 10 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Grey Gold won the race 12 months ago

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/ATR)


1.45 - Weatherbys Racing Diaries "The French Furze" Novices´ Hurdle Cl2 2m6f More4

7/7 – Irish bred
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/7 – Had run just 1 or 2 times over hurdles before
6/7 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
5/7 – Carried 11-3 in weight
5/7 – Had won just once over hurdles before
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Won at Statford last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 6/1


2.55 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

14/14 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
13/14 – Placed in the first two in their latest race
13/14 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
12/14 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
11/14 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Aged 6 or younger
10/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Officially rated 151 or higher
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Placed in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
7/14 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/14 – Won by an Irish bred
4/14 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/14 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
1/14 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
Irving won the race in 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury


3.30 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m CH4

11/12 – Didn’t win their last race
11/12 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
10/12 – Irish bred
10/12 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
8/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
6/12 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Aged 8 years-old
4/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/12– Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 15/2
Wakanda won the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Mystree - First run for us but had some decent chase form last term. Still potentially well-handicapped on hurdles rating. Richard Johnson on board a big plus too. Hoping for a nice run and has won on heavy ground in the past."
Michael Scudamore

19/11/16 1st 4/1

"Favorite Girl - Fit from the flat and good jockey booked in Jack Sherwood. The horse seems well and full of confidence at the moment after her recent win at Nottingham. Likes to race up with the pace and was second off this mark last season so that gives us hope. Some big jumping yards against us though so looks a fair standard of race. Likely to make a bold bid from the front - Small e/w if all 8 run."
Mick Appleby

18/11/16 2nd 14/1

"Twenty Eight Guns - In great order and seems a lot better for his first run back last month on his chase debut. Made a few errors that day so still did well to plug on for 4th. We've given him plenty of time to get over that and been schooling a lot at home too. Yet to win under rules, but has hit the crossbar several times. The softer ground today is a big plus and despite Royale Salute feared we are hoping to go well. "
Michael Scudamore

18/11/16 1st 2/1

 

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