Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 27th Jan 2018

Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with 'Trials Day' up at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase.

The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won for the last two seasons.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RUK

12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
11/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/14 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
8/14 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – French bred (including last 5 winners)
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/14 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
4/14 – Trained by Alan King
4/14 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
4/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
3/14 – Won by a German bred horse
3/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (P Hobbs) 1/5 fav

 

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RUK

14/14 – Aged 8 or younger
13/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
13/14 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
10/14 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
10/14 – Rated 128 or higher
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – French bred
5/14 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/14 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/14 – Winning favourites

2017 Winner: ROYAL VACATION (C Tizzard) 12/1

1.50 – Festival Trials Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV

13/14 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
12/14 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
12/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/14 – Rated 130 or higher
11/14 – Aged 8 or older
11/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (6 won)
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
9/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable

2017 Winner: FOXTAIL HILL (N Twiston-Davies) 12/1

2.25 - BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

14/14 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/14 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
13/14 – Ran over at least 3m before (fences)
12/14 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
10/14 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time
10/14 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
10/14 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
9/14 – Priced 6/1 or less
8/14 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/14 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
5/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (4 wins in total)
2/14 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/14 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/14 – Favourites
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 8/1
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

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2017 Winner: MANY CLOUDS (O Sherwood) 8/1

3.00 – Ballymore Classc Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

12/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
11/12 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
11/12 – Favourites placed
10/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
10/12 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
9/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/12 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/12 – Won their latest race
9/12 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
8/12 – Priced 7/2 or less
5/12 – Favourites that won
4/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/12 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/12 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/12 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable

2017 Winner: WHOLESTONE (N Twiston-Davies) 11/4 fav

 

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

12/13 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
12/13 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/13 – Went to run in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (4 won)
11/13 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
10/13 – Officially rated 155 or higher
10/13 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/13 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
8/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
7/13 – Won their latest race
6/13 – Favourites that won
5/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2017 Winner: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (H Fry) 10/11 fav

4.10 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

13/13 – Rated 121 or higher
12/13 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
10/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/13 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – French bred
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore

2017 Winner: WILLIAM H BONNEY (A King) 5/1

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

2.05 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
8/8 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
8/8 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
7/8 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/8 – Placed favourites
6/8 – Won last time out
4/8 – Irish bred
3/8 – Winning favourite
2/8 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/8 – Trained by Malcolm Jefferson
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 4/1
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

2017 Winner: CONSTANTINE BAY (N Henderson) 4/1

2.40 - OLBG.com Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 8 or younger
7/8 – Had won over this trip before
7/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Went onto run in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/8 – Won last time out
5/8 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
4/8 – Irish bred
3/8 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1

2017 Winner: VROUM VROUM MAG (W Mullins) 1/5 fav

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV4

12/12 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
11/12 – Carried 11-2 or less
11/12 – Aged 9 or younger
9/12 – Officially rated 130 or higher
9/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/12 – Carried 10-12 or less
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
7/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/12 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/12 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell
Other Stats:
4 of the last 11 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 11 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2017 Winner: ZIGA BOY (A King) 10/1

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