Sat TV Trends: 28th Apr 2012

Favourites Have A Bad Record In The Bet365 Gold Cup

Did you know the last outright favourite to win Saturday’s Bet365 Gold Cup was in 1990?

 

 

SANDOWN (C4/RUK)

 

2.00 - bet365 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Soft 2m3f110y

2 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (1 co)
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or younger
6 of the last 8 returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
The Pipe stable won the race in 2004, 2008 & 2010
5 of the last 8 carried 10-12 or MORE
7 of the last 8 winners didn’t win their last race
5 of the last 8 winners had won over this trip before
3 of the last 8 were previous course winners at Sandown
3 of the last 8 ran at Cheltenham last time out
Gary Moore is just 5 from 94 with his hurdlers at the track - SIRCOZY
Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson both have a 22% record with their hurdlers here

2.35 -
bet365.Com Celebration Chase Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 2m

FRENCH OPERA won the race 12 months ago
Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
7 of the last 10 winners were aged either 8 or 9 years-old
All 10 recent winners had won over at least 2m before
None of the last 10 winners won their previous race
8 of the last 10 ran at either Aintree or Cheltenham last time out
4 of the last 10 contested the Melling Chase that same season
4 of the last 10 contested the Champion Chase that same season
3 of the last 10 winners had won at Sandown before
5 of the last 10 came second last time out
Paul Nicholls has won the race in 2002, 2004, 2008 & 2009
The Pipe stable took the prize in 2003, 2005 & 2010
All 10 recent winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
Only 1 winner aged 10 or older in the last 10 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track - SANCTUAIRE
Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his chasers here – FRENCH OPERA

 

3.10 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4 Good To Soft 3m5f110y

No outright favourite has won since 1990
9 of the last 10 winners failed to win their previous race
8 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 3m before
7 of the last 10 had managed to win or come second in a Class 1 or 2 that season
50% of the last 8 winners were aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 14/1
8 of the last 10 have gone to either the Pipe, F Murphy, Nicholls or Hobbs stables
8 of the last 10 carried 10-13 or LESS
4 winners since 2001 ran in that season’s Scottish or Aintree Grand Nationals
UK based trainers have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners returned a double-figure price
4 of the last 10 ran at Aintree last time out
Since 1986 there have only been 4 winners that carried more than 11-0
Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track – TIDAL BAY & ALDERTUNE
Sam Thomas is 8 from 22 (36%) when riding over fences here – DOVER’S HILL
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 1 from 34 with his chasers at the track – VIKING BLOND & MAJOR MALARKEY


3.45 -
bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) CH4 Heavy 1m2f7y

Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
8 of the last 10 winners returned 11/2 or SHORTER in the betting
6 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season
4 of the last 10 had previously won over this trip
50% of the last 10 winners won their last race
None of the last 10 winners had run at Sandown before
8 of the last 10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
John Gosden won the race in 2008 & 2010 – THOUGHT WORTHY
UK-based trainers have won 9 of the last 10 runnings
Ryan Moore has a 23% record when riding 3 year-olds at the track - ROUGEMONT
Aidan O’Brien is 0 from 6 with his 3 year-olds at Sandown – IMPERIAL MONARCH
Tom Queally boasts a +£35 level stakes profit when riding 3 year-olds here - STIPULATE

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RIPON (C4/ATR)

 

2.20 - Betfred Goals Galore Handicap (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-90) Winner £8,093 CH4 Soft 1m

Only 1 previous running
Trainer Dandy Nicholls won the race 12 months ago
Last year’s winner was aged 5 years-old
Trainer Declan Carroll is 5 from 20 with his older horses here
Brian Ellison is just 1 from 24 with his older horses at the track Tim Easterby is only 8 from 107 with his older horses at the course
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 19% (+£91) record when riding 4+year-olds here
Duran Fentiman is only 2 from 44 when riding older horses here


3.30 -
Betfred "The Bonus King" Handicap (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105) CH4 Good To Soft 2m

4 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint)
7 of the last 9 winners returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
4 year-olds have won 4 of the last 5 runnings
No winner aged older than 9 years-old in the last 9 runnings
5 of the last 9 winners carried 9-6 or more
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 17/2
6 of the last 9 had a previous run that season
3 of the last 9 had won at Ripon before
4 of the last 9 had won over 2m on the flat before
3 of the last 9 won their last race
3 of the last 9 ran at Kempton last time out
Mark Johnston is just 1 from 22 with his older horses here – GULF OF NAPLES
Mick Channon is 3 from 15 (20%) with his older horses at the track - MONTAFF
Sam Hitchcott is 2 from 7 when riding older horses at the course - MONTAFF
Joe Fanning is only 2 from 30 when riding older horses here – GULF OF NAPLES

 

PUNCHESTOWN (C4/ATR)

3.15 - thetote.com Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) ATR Soft 3m1f

7 of the last 10 runnings went to the favourite
The last 8 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 years-old
7 of the last 10 winners were priced 2/1 or shorter
UK-based trainers have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Ruby Walsh rode the winner in 2007 & 2008
Barry Geraghty rode the winner in 2002 & 2005
5 of the last 8 winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
7 of the last 10 had previously won at Grade 1 level
7 of the last 8 Irish-trained winners had won previously at the track

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