Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 28th Jan 2017

Horse racing trends expect Andy Newton is on hand with all the key trends and stats ahead of this Saturday’s excellent Cheltenham and Doncaster cards.

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)


12.00 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f

11/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
8/13 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
7/13 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
7/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – French bred (including last 4 winners)
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/13 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (2 winners, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
4/13 – Trained by Alan King
4/13 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/13 – Won by a German bred horse
3/13 – Won by an Irish bred horse
3/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

2016 Winner: PROTEK DES FLOS (N Henderson) 14/1


12.35 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f

13/13 – Aged 8 or younger
12/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, La Landiere Cathcart 2003)
12/13 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
10/13 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
11/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
9/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
9/13 – Rated 128 or higher
8/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
6/13 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – French bred
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/13 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning favourites

2016 Winner: KING’S ODYSSEY (E Williams) 8/1

 

1.10 – Hugo’s Restaurant Trophy Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f CH4

13/13 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
12/13 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
12/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
11/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/13 – Rated 130 or higher
10/13 – Aged 8 or older
10/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (6 won)
9/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/13 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
8/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Won last time out
4/13 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/13 – Won by the Pipe stable

2016 Winner: ANNACOTTY (M  Keighley) 13/2

1.45 – Berkshire Community Foundation Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/14 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
13/14 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
12/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
12/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
12/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
10/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
9/14 – Won their last race
9/14 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
7/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 2 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (26 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 12 runnings is 7/2
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 – Renewal at Cheltenham


2.15 - BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y CH4

13/13 – Officially rated 151 or higher
12/13 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/13 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (7 had won)
12/13 – Ran over at least 3m (fences)
10/13 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time
10/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
9/13 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
9/13 – Priced 6/1 or less
8/13 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
7/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
5/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
5/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/13 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
1/13 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/13 – Favourites
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup
The average SP in the last 13 runnings is 8/1

2016 Winner: SMAD PLACE (A King) 9/2

2.50 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Cl2 3m6f37y

8/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Aged 9 or older
7/9 – Aged between 9-11 years-old
6/9 – Had won over this Cross Country Course before
6/9 – Carried 11-8 in weight
6/9 – Irish-trained winners
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/9 – Trained by Enda Bolger
3/9 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/9 – Ridden by Nina Carberry
2/9 – Ridden by Patrick Mullins
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

2016 Winner: JOSIES ORDERS (E Bolger) 11/4


3.25 – Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y C4

11/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/11 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
10/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
9/11 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
8/11 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
8/11 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
8/11 – Won their latest race
8/11 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
7/11 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
7/11 – Priced 7/2 or less
4/11 – Favourites that won
3/11 – Raced at Newbury last time out
3/11 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/11 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/11 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty

2016 Winner: YANWORTH (A King) 2/1 fav

 

4.00 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m CH4

11/12 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
11/12 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/12 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
10/12 – Went to run in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle (4 won)
10/12 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
9/12 – Officially rated 155 or higher
9/12 – Winners that finished in the top 4 in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
8/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/12 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
7/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
6/12 – Won their latest race
5/12 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/12 – Favourites that won
3/12 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2016 Winner: THISTLECRACK (C Tizzard) 4/5 fav

 

4.35 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) RUK Soft 2m1f

12/12 – Rated 121 or higher
11/12 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
11/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/12 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/12 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/12 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/12 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore

2016 Winner: SOLSTICE STAR (M Keighley) 13/2


Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.25 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
7/7 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
7/7 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/7 – Placed favourites
6/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/7 – Won last time out
4/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Winning favourite
2/7 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/7 – Trained by Malcolm Jefferson
The average SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1
No real age trend with 5,6,7 & 8 year-olds all winning

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2016 Winner: BARTERS HILL (B Pauling) 4/7 fav

3.05 - OLBG.com Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y CH4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 8 or younger
6/7 – Had won over this trip before
6/7 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/7 – Went onto run in the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/7 – Won last time out
4/7 – Irish bred
2/7 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

2016 Winner: SMART TALK (B Ellison) 7/1

 

3.40 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m

11/11 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
10/11 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/11 – Aged 9 or younger
8/11 – Officially rated 130 or higher
8/11 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/11 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/11 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
7/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/11 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Key Stats:

4 of the last 11 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
4 of the last 11 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2016 Winner: ZIGA BOY (A King) 8/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Etaad - Seven Clans is the one to beat, but we think we head here with a fair e/w chance. Poor last time, but better draw and step up in trip are pluses. We'll ride the horse a bit different today to see if that helps too (George Baker in the saddle) - looks decent e/w value over the favourite and would not be shocked to see him run a lot better this time. "
Gary Moore

21/01/17 1st 14/1

"Fields Of Glory - Might have liked a bit more cut, but will be fine. Still a bit to learn over fences as this is only his 4th career outing over the bigger obstacles, but a horse that is capable of going well in a race like this and Richard Johnson has won on him before too. Looks one of my better chances on the day and hoping for a big run."
Tim Vaughan

20/01/17 1st 4/1

 

 

 

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