Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 28th Nov 2015

Another massive Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Fighting Fifth Hurdles the showcase races at Newbury and Newcastle – As always we’ve got all the C4 TV trends…….

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Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/RUK)

 

1.15 - Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y CH4

10/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) before
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
8/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Raced at Wincanton (3), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
7/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Officially rated between 126-130
7/10 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Unplaced last time out
4/10 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
3/10 – French bred
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1


1.50 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f CH4

Three previous runnings
All three winners aged 5 years-old
No winning favourites
All 3 winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Paul Nicholls, Alan King & Rebecca Curtis have trained the winners
Nicky Henderson has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Harry Fry has a 33% record with his hurdlers here
Venetia Williams is just 1 from 27 with his hurdlers at the track

2.25 – bet365 Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

11/13 – Grade One winner over hurdles
10/13 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/13 – Priced 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Favourites
9/13 – Won a hurdles race at Newbury
8/13 – Raced at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/13 – French bred
7/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Returned odds-on in the betting
6/13 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
6/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/13 – Won by Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 6 renewals)
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

3.00 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m2f110y

12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Won a chase race over at least 3m before
11/13 – Won between 2-5 previous races over fences
10/13 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
10/13 – Raced at Newbury before (6 had won over fences there)
10/13 – Won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/13 – Placed in the first 3 last time out
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/13 – Rated between 140 and 151
8/13 – Raced at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
7/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Favourites Unplaced
7/13 – Had a previous run that season
4/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 3)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 3)
The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 10/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (25 runnings) there have been 13 winners (52%) aged 7 years-old

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3.35 - bet365 Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f CH4

12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-135
10/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/13 – French bred
8/13 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/13 – Won a UK chase race over 2m1f
8/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
7/13 – Won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
6/13 – Favourites unplaced
5/13 – Favourites
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (C4/ATR)

2.05 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their latest race
12/13 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
11/13 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
11/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles
10/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Officially rated 151 or higher
8/13 – Finished in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Won by an Irish bred
3/13 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/13 – Ran over hurdles at Newcastle before
1/13 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
Irving won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

2.40 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m CH4

11/11 – Failed to win their last race
10/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Won a UK chase race over at least 3m
9/11 – Irish bred
9/11 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/11 – Won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
8/11 – Unplaced in their last race
6/11 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/11 – Favourites unplaced
4/11 – Aged 8 years-old
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/11– Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 7.7/1
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

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