Sat TV Trends: 28th Oct 2023

Loads going on this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster, Newbury and Cheltenham.

Yes, jump racing is back at the home of the National Hunt - Cheltenham - with a cracking card of which the first four races are LIVE on ITV. Then at Newbury, we’ve two decent Group Three contests to look forward too, while the LIVE ITV action concludes with three races from Doncaster that are spearheaded by the Group One Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes - a prize that top Irish handler - Aidan O’Brien - has won a massive 11 times!

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we’ve got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)

2.10 – Kameko Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

19/21 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
18/21 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
18/21 – Placed favourites
17/21 - Foaled in February or later
17/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
16/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/21 – Had raced at least twice previously
14/21 – Winning favourites
13/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
13/21 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
13/21 – Won their last race
12/21 – Had won over a mile in the past
10/21 – Won by an Irish-based yard
8/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (11 wins in total)
4/21 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 10)
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 11 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2021 & 2022
6 horses winners went onto win the Derby the following season: Reference Point (1986); High Chaparral (2001); Motivator (2004); Authorized (2006); Camelot (2011); Auguste Rodin (2022)
The average SP in the last 21 runnings is 6/1

2.45 – William Hill Prospect Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

14/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/15 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
14/15 – Foaled in February or later
13/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Carried 9-1 in weight
11/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
7/15 – March-born foals
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 7 runnings

3.20 – William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV

19/19 – Ran 5 or more times that season
18/19 – Had won over 5f before
16/19 – Aged 5 or younger
14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/19 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
11/19 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/19 - Carried 8-9 or less
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Winners from stall 1
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Winning mare/filly
10 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall
Note: The 2021 running was a dead-heat

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

12.55 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/19 – Foaled in Feb or later
16/19 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
15/19 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
13/19 – Never raced at Newbury
12/19 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
12/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites unplaced
10/19 – Won over 7f before
10/19 – Won their last race
7/19 – Foaled in February
7/19 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
5/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
1/19 – Winning favourites

1.30 – BetVictor St Simon Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

19/20 – Aged 5 or younger
18/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Had won at least twice before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had at least 4 runs that season
14/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/20 – Rated 106 or higher
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had run at Newbury before (6 won)
12/20 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
11/20 – Placed horses from stall 6
8/20 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/20 – Won by a filly or mare
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by William Haggas (3 of last 11)
3/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/20 – Winners from stall 1
Max Vega won the race in 2022
Note: 2018 running was a dead-heat

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 – Epic Value at William Hill Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 - Aged between 6 or 8 years-old
8/8 - Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
7/8 - Last raced 6 months or more ago
7/8 - Had run at the track before
7/8 - Won between 2-4 times over fences
6/8 - Favourites placed (top three)
5/8 - Carried 11-1 or more
5/8 - Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/8 - Rated between 140-147
3/8 - French bred
3/8 - Winning favourites
3/8 - Won last time out
Before Midnight won the race in 2021

1.50 - Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

10/14 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
10/14 - Had won 2 or less times over hurdles
8/14 – Placed in their last race
8/14 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/14 – Favourites placed
5/14 – Irish bred winners
4/14 – Irish-trained winners
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Gordon Elliott has won the race twice since 2014
Just 1 winning favourite in last 9 runnings

2.25 – Epic Jumps Season At William Hill Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

15/16 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
14/16 – Won over at least 3m previously
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
11/16 – First run of the season
11/16 – Irish bred winners
11/16 – Favourites unplaced
10/16 – Rated 134 or higher
10/16 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/16 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
8/16 – Unplaced in their last race
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/16 – Winning Favourites
Lord Accord (15/2) won the race in 2022

3.00 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

10/14 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
10/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/14 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
8/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
7/14 – Irish Bred
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Mare winners
2/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

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