Sat TV Trends: 29th June 2024

The Northumberland Plate takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket, plus it’s Irish Derby weekend over at the Curragh, with the big race on Sunday (4:05pm) - as always, Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RacingTV)

2:15 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

20/21 – Never raced at the track before
18/21 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
17/21 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
17/21 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
14/21 – Came from stall 5 or lower
12/21 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
11/21 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/21 – Trained by the Hannon yard
3/21 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 10)
2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 5)
2/21 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of the last 4)
5 of the last 10 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

2:50 - JCB Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

12/13 - Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 - Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 - Won 3 or more times
10/13 - Rated 100+
10/13 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/13 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/13 - Placed favourites
8/13 - Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
6/13 - Had run at the track before
5/13 - Winning favourites
3/13 - Ran at York last time out
3/13 - Trained by David Simcock
3/13 - Ridden by William Buick
2/13 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (last 2)
Kemari won the race in 2023 (7/1)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

3:25 – Plantation Stud Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

20/22 – Won over 7f before
19/22 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
18/22 – Had at least 1 run already that season
14/22 – Aged 5 or younger
12/22 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/22 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
10/22 – Came from stall 3 or lower
11/22 – Unplaced favourites
7/22 – Winning favourites
5/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/22 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 13 runnings)
2/22 - Trained by Henry Candy (2 of last 5 runnings)
Trainer John Gosden has won the race 5 times
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
Pogo (18/5) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 9/2

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1:35 – Jenningsbet 200 Shops Nationwide Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 - Aged between 3-6 years-old
7/7 - Had won over 6f before
7/7 - Won between 2-5 times
6/7 - Carried 9-2 or more in weight
6/7 - Returned between 15/2 or shorter
6/7 - Drawn in stalls 9 or higher
5/7 - Placed favourites
4/7 - Rated between 96 and 99 (inc)
5/67- Unplaced last time out
5/7 - Had run at the track before
2/7 - Came from stalls 10
2/7 - Winning favourites
Batai Dubai (7/2 jfav) won the race in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

2:04 – Jenningsbet Nun Street Newcastle Open Now Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

21/22 – Had won over 6f before
20/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Unplaced last time out
15/22 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
14/22 – Yet to win a Group race
14/22 – Placed favourites
13/22 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/22 – Aged 5 or older
8/22 - Ran at Ascot last time out
8/22 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/22 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/22 – Won last time out
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/22 – Trained by William Haggas (last 2)
2/22 – Ridden by Tom Marquand (last 2)
13 of the last 21 winners came between stalls 1-5
50% of the last 6 winners came from stall 2
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 120 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
Tiber Flow won the race in 2023 (5/2 fav)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

2:35 - Jenningsbet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
8/8 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
8/8 – Ran in the last 2 months
8/8 - Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
7/8 - Won over at least 1m6f in the past
7/8 – Aged 4 (4) or 6 (3) years-old
5/8 - Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/8 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/8 - Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/8 - Winning favourites
3/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 10/1

3:10 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

21/22 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
21/22 – Finished fifth or better last time out
18/22 – Came from stall 14 or lower
18/22 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
17/22 – Aged 6 or younger
17/22 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/22 – Carried 8-12 or less
12/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
8/22 – Won by a National Hunt yard
7/22 – Won their previous race
6/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/22 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 15 winners)
2/22 – Trained by Donald McCain (2 of the last 14)
2/22 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 5)
2/22 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 9)
1/22 – Won by a previous winner of the race
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle (moved from the turf)
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Six of the last 18 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
6 of the last 9 winners have carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 9lbs.
11 winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 5 of the last 12
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

3:40 – Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 7f ITV

7/7 – Aged between 3-7 years-old
7/7 – Irish bred winners
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Won over 7f before
6/7 – Won between 1-3 times
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
5/7 – Carried 9-4 or more
5/7 – Rated 91 (3) or 97 (2)
5/7 – Had run at Newcastle before
4/7 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Thirsk (2) last time out
4/7 – Aged 4 years-old
4/7 – From stalls 1 (2) or 9 (2)
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 11/2

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