Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 2nd April 2016

Another busy day this Saturday with nine LIVE C4 races at Doncaster, Newbury and KemptonAndy Newton’s got it all covered from a trends angle.

 

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DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/C4)

2.15 - Betway Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

12/14 – Carried 8-13 or more
11/14 – Aged 4 years-old
11/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/14 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
10/14 – Won over a mile before
8/14 – Won from a double-figure draw
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Won a race at Doncaster before
0/14 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 14 years

2.45 - Betway Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4

13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/13 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/13 – Had won between 2-4 times before
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Having their first run of the flat season
9/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
7/13 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/13 – Placed first or second last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before
6/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/13 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/13 – Won last time out
4/13  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/13 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

3.20 - Betway Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f More4

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/12 – Had won no more than 5 times before
10/12 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
10/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
8/12 – Had won over 6f before
8/12 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
8/12 – Rated 102+
7/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Winning favourites
1/12 – Had won at Doncaster before
Jack Dexter won the race in 2013
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar

3.55 – Betway Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m More4

Just 3 previous running
3/3 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
1/3 – Winning favourites
Roger Varian has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Dandy Nicholls is just 5 from 79 with his older horses at the track
Adrian Nicholls has 3% record riding older horses at the track

4.30 - Betway Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl4 5f More4

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8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/10 – Won this on their debut runs
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/10 – Ridden by a claimer
4/10 – Trained by Bill Turner
4/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winners from stall 2
2/10 – Winners from stall 10
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/10 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/More4)

3.05 - Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f CH4

Two previous runnings
Both winners returned between 7/1 & 8/1
No winning favourite
Both winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2015
Venetia Williams won the race in 2014
Trainer Robin Dickin has a 67% record with his chasers at the track
Philip Hobbs and Oliver Sherwood all have a 21% record with their chasers at the track
Kerry Lee is 2 from 6 (33%) with her chasers at the track
Philip Hobbs has a +£43 level stakes profit with his chasers at the track

3.40 - EBF Stallions & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f CH4

11/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
8/11 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Had won over 2m 1/2f (hurdles) before
8/11 – Aged 6 years-old
7/11 – Returned 15/2 or sorter in the betting
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/11 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.3/1
Trainer Harry Fry has a 38% record with his hurdlers at the track

KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/C4/More4)

2.30 - Betfred "Goals Galore Extra" Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

3 previous runnings
All 3 winners aged 4 years-old
All 3 winners carried 9-3 or less
All 3 winners returned between 4/1 and 6/1 (inc)
No winning favourites
Karl Burke’s Georgian Bay won the race in 2014
Marco Botti’s Grey Mirage won the race in 2013
Ralph Beckett & Philip McBride have 21% records with their older horses here
Clive Cox is just 5 from 70 with his older horses here
Mick Channon is just 1 from 33 with his older horses here
Jockey John Fahey is just 5 from 97 riding older horses here

4.10 - Betfred Mobile Lotto Snowdrop Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m CH4

11/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/12 – Won by a 4 year-old
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
9/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/12 – Rated between 90-102
8/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Unplaced in their last race
6/12 – Rated 96 or lower
6/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Had run at Kempton before
2/12 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/12 – Won last time out
Marco Botti won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4.2/1

 

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