Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Dec 2017

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup – or as it’s now called The Ladbroke Trophy Chase - plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, we’ve got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

Five previous runnings
3 of the last 5 winners aged 5 years-old
No winning favourite
All winners carried between 10-10 and 11-5
Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Rebecca Curtis & Ali Stronge have trained the winners
Trainer Harry Fry has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ben Pauling has a 24% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Richard Johnson has 19% (+45) strike-rate riding over hurdles at the track

2.25 Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Fielden Hurdle) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m69y ITV

11/11 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
10/11 – Aged 6 or younger
10/11 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
9/11 – Irish, French or German bred
9/11 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
8/11 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/11 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Finished in the top three last time out
6/11 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Had raced at Newbury before
5/11 – Aged 5 years-old
4/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/11 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/11 – Won last time out
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
13/15 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
12/15 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/15 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
9/15 – Rated between 140 and 151
9/15 – Had a previous run that season
8/15 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (26 runnings) there have been 13 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old

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3.35 - Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – French bred
9/15 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
9/15 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
8/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/15 – Placed in their last race
8/15 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
9 of the last 11 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Grey Gold won the race in 2015

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.10 – Unibet Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

15/15 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
14/15 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
13/15 – Placed in the first two in their latest race
12/15 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
12/15 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Officially rated 151 or higher
10/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/15 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
4/15 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/15 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 3)
2/15 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/15 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
Irving won the race in 2014 and 2016
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 11/2
Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

3.20 – At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

12/13 – Didn’t win their last race
11/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Irish bred
11/13 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
10/13 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
9/13 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
6/13 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
5/13 – Aged 8 years-old
4/13 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 8/1

Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

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