Sat TV Trends: 2nd June 2012

Pressure On Aidan To Land The Derby

Andy Newton is on hand with all the trends & stats at Epsom, Musselburgh & Haydock this Derby Day Saturday.

 

EPSOM (BBC/RUK)


1.35 -
Diamond Jubilee Handicap (Sponsored By Investec) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) BBC1 Good 1m2f18y

10/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Never run at Epsom before
9/10 – Placed last time out
9/10 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
7/10 – Favourites that were placed
7/10 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
7/10 – Carried 8-10 or more
7/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/10 – Won their previous race
3/10 – Winners from stall 1
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/10 – Won by Kieren Fallon (2002, 2004)
2/10 – Won by Eddie Ahern (2003, 2009)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Stall 2 has just one place to it’s name in the last 10 runnings
Sylvester Kirk won the race in 2009 & 2011 – THE GIVING TREE

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Sir Mark Prescott has a 56% record with his 3 year-olds here
Sylvester Kirk has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Tom Queally has a 27% record riding 3 year-olds here

 

2.05 - Investec Woodcote Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) BBC1 Good To Firm 6f

10/10 – Ran within the last month
9/10 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/10 – Yet to win over 6f
7/10 – Had 2 or more previous runs
7/10 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
7/10 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
5/10 – Won their previous race
4/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Sir Mark Prescott has a 50% record with his 2 year-olds here
Jim Crowley is 2 from 6 riding 2 year-olds here

2.40 -
Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) BBC1 Good 1m4f10y

St Nicholas Abbey won the race 12 months ago
10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
10/10 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
9/10 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/10 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
8/10 – Raced within the last month
8/10 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
7/10 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (only one won though)
6/10 – Favourites placed
5/10 – Won by Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011)
4/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Had run at Epsom before
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011) – RED CADEAUX
2/10 – Ridden by Kieren Fallon (2002, 2005) – QUEST FOR PEACE
2/10 Ridden by Johnny Murtagh (2008, 2010)
1/10 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Aidan O’Brien has a 43% record with his older horses here
Kieren Fallon has a 31% record riding older horses here
Johnny Murtagh is 2 from 7 on 4+year-olds here

 

3.15 - Investec Specialist Bank "Dash" (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) BBC1
Good To Firm 5f

10/10 – Failed to win their previous race
10/10 – Had run within the last 6 weeks (9 within the last month)
9/10 – Won from stall 8 or higher
9/10 – Favourites unplaced
8/10 – Aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
7/10 – Had run at Epsom before (only 1 had won though)
7/10 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price
4/10 – Trained by Dandy Nicholls (2002, 2003, 2005, 2009)
1/10 – The horse from stall 1 has only hit the frame once
0/10 – Winning favourites
Indian Trail won this in 2009
Bertoliver won the race in 2010
Captain Dunne won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13.5/1
Of the 30 places up for grabs in the last 10 years horses from stalls 8 or higher have filled 25

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Hughie Morrison has a 31% record with his older horses here
Brian Meehan is 2 from 5 with his older horses here
David Nicholls has just a 4% record with his older horses here
Richard Fahey has just a 6% record with his older horses here
Kieren Fallon has a 31% record riding older horses here
Martin Dwyer is just 1 from 21 riding older horses here

 

4.00 - Investec Derby (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo) BBC1 Good 1m4f10y

10/10 – Ran within the last month
10/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won a Group race before
8/10 – Won from a single-figure stall
7/10 – Favourites that were placed
7/10 – Had run over 1m2f before
7/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Had won a Group One before
3/10 – Won the Dante Stakes last time out
3/10 – Won by the favourite
1/10 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
0/10 – Run at the course before
0/10 – Won over 1m4f before

9 Dante winners went onto win the Derby – BONFIRE
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Aidan O’Brien is 1 from 38 with his 3 year-olds here

 

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HAYDOCK (C4/RUK)

 

2.10 –Bet At bluesquare.com Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-100) CH4Good To Firm 2m45y

9/10 – Had previously won over 1m6f (4 had won over 2m)
9/10 – Failed to win their previous race
9/10 – Came from a single-figure stall
9/10  - Single figure stalls that have filled the first two home
8/10 – Had run within the last month
8/10 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
7/10 – Horses from stall 6 that have finished in the first two (4 won) – SWINGING HAWK
7/10 – Had run before at Haydock (2 won there)
6/10 – Carried 9-1 or more
4/10 – Returned a double-figure price
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12.5/1

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
John Gosden has a 31% record with his older horses here
Henry Candy is 2 from 9 with his older horses here

 

2.35 - Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4Good To Firm 7f

9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Ran within the last month
8/10 – Placed last time out
8/10 – Had won over 7f before
7/10 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
6/10 – Favourites placed (inc last 6 renewals)
5/10 – Had run at Haydock before
4/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Had won a Group race before
3/10 – Won their previous race
3/10 – Winners from stall 3
1/10 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Chris Wall is 2 from 9 with his older horses here
George Baker has a 23% record when riding here

3.10 -
Grosvenor Casinos Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4Good To Firm 1m3f200y
8/9 – Aged 4 years-old
8/9 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/9 – Won from stall 5 or lower
7/9 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Came here off a break (hadn’t raced within the last 2 months)
4/9 – Had run at Haydock before
2/9 – Won their last race
2/9 – Winning favourites
Saeed Bin Suroor AND Frankie Dettori won this race in 2008 – KHAWLAH
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
John Gosden has a 31% record with his older horses here
Roger Charlton has a 40% record with his older horses here
Saeed Bin Suroor is currently just 1 from 25 with his older horses here

 

3.40 – Blue Square Sandy Lane Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo) CH4Good To Firm 6f

9/10 – Had not run at Haydock before
9/10 – Had won over 6f before
8/10 – Placed last time out
8/10 – Won from stall 5 or higher
8/10 – Ran within the last month
8/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had not won a Listed or better class race before
6/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Winner from stall 1
Peter Chapple-Hyam won this in 2008 – SAMMINDER
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Clive Cox is just 1 from 23 with his 3 year-olds here
Peter Chapple-Hyam is 4 from 15 with his 3 year-olds here
Frankie Dettori has a 30% record when riding 3 year-olds here

 

MUSSELBURGH (C4/RUK)


1.55-
toteplacepot Edinburgh Castle Conditions Stakes (CLASS 2) (2yo) CH4Good To Firm 5f

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Had at least 1 previous run
4/4 – Ran within the last month
3/4 - Won their last race
3/4 – Winning favourites
3/4 – Had won over 5f before
2/4 – Had won at Musselburgh before
The average winning SP in the last 4 years is 7/2
Bryan Smart and Tom Eaves won the race in 2008 & 2010 – RHAGORI AUR
David Brown trained the winner 12 months ago – SATSUMA
Mark Johnston trained the winner in 2009 – LIMIT UP, HEAVY METAL

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Bryan Smart has a 47% record with his 2 year-olds here
Richard Fahey has a 29% record with his 2 year-olds here
Tony Hamilton is just 1 from 23 on 2 year-olds here

 

2.25 - totepool Tradesman´s Derby (Handicap) (CLASS 4) (3yo 0-80) CH4 Good To Firm 1m4f100y

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Ran within the last month
4/5 – Had at least 4 previous runs
4/5 – Carried 9-1 or more
4/5 – Came third or better last time out
4/5 – Had run over 1m4f before
4/5 – Favourites placed
1/5 – Winning favourites
0/5 – Had not won over 1m4f before
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 8/1
Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning won the race in 2009 – PARTY LINE

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Mark Johnston has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds here
David Nicholls is just 1 from 23 with his 3 year-olds here
Linda Perratt is just 2 from 43 with her 3 year-olds here
Joe Fanning has a 31% record on 3 year-olds here
Lee Topliss has a 50% record when riding 3 year-olds here


2.55 - totescoop6 Scottish Sprint Cup (Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) CH4Good To Firm 5f

8/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/9 – Had won over 5f before
8/9 – Ran within the last month
7/9 – Carried 9-1 or less
6/9 – Favourites unplaced
6/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/9 – Won their previous race
3/9 – Had run at Musselburgh before
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 17/1
Bryan Smart won the race in 2005 & 2007 – FLASH CITY, EXCEL BOLT

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Eric Alston is just 1 from 28 with his older horses here
Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 64 with his older horse here
Royston Ffrench is just 1 from 39 on older horses here
Amy Ryan is just 1 from on older horses here
Martin Lane has a 20% record on older horses here


3.30 - totepool.com Edinburgh Cup (Handicap)
(CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) CH4Good To Firm 1m4f100y

5 previous runnings
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 15/2
Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning won the race in 2009 & 2011

Trainer/Jockey Stats:
Alan Swinbank has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds here
Richard Fahey has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds here
Mark Johnston has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds here
Joe Fanning has a 31% record riding 3 year-olds here
Lee Topliss has a 50% record when riding 3 year-olds here

 

Note: All jockey and trainer stats are correct as 31st May 2012

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