Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 2nd June 2018

It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Did you know that 15 of the last 16 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 11 of the last 16 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

Supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it!

 

Saturday 2nd June 2018

Epsom Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.00 - Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Never run at Epsom before
13/15 – Had won over 1m before (5 over 1m2f)
11/15 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
11/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Favourites that were placed
8/15 – Horses placed from stall 1
5/15 – Won their previous race
3/15 – Winners from stall 1
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 15 runnings

2.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV

15/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
13/15 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
13/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
8/15 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
5/15 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/15 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Silvester de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (2) have won 7 of the last 8 runnings
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

3.10 – INVESTEC DIOMED STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Aged 5 or older
12/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/15 – Had raced at Epsom before
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Sovereign Debt (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
Arod (7/4 fav) won the race in 2015

3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV

Recent Epsom Dash Winners

2017 – CASPIAN PRINCE (25/1)
2016 – CASPIAN PRINCE (11/1)
2015 – DESERT LAW (16/1)
2014 – CASPIAN PRINCE (9/1)
2013 – DUKE OF FIRENZE (5/1 fav)
2012 – STONE OF FOLCA (50/1)
2011 – CAPTAIN DUNNE (13/2)
2010 – BERTOLIVER (33/1)
2009 – INDIAN TRAIL (11/1)
2008 – HOLBECK GHYLL (15/2)
2007 – HOGMANEIGH (7/1)
2006 – DESERT LORD (12/1)
2005 – FIRE UP THE BAND (14/1)
2004 – CARIBBEAN CORAL (20/1)
2003 – ATLANTIC VIKING (9/1)

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Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (12 within the last 4 weeks)
12/16 – Came from stall 8 or higher
12/16 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
12/16– Unplaced favourites
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/16 – Had raced at Epsom previously (4 had won)
10/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/16 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 16/1

4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV

Past Epsom Derby Winners

2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

16/16 – Raced no more than 5 times before
15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Favourites that were placed
11/16 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/16 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/16 – Had won a Group One before
8/16 – Irish-trained winners
6/16 – Won by the favourite
5/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
4/16 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
4/16 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/16 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/16 – Won over 1m4f before
0/16 – Run at the course before
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 6/1
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017

 

 

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