Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 30th June 2018

The Northumberland Plate, one of the richest staying handicaps, takes centre stage at Newcastle racecourse, while the ITV cameras also head to Newmarket. Plus, as an extra bonus - it’s also Irish Derby Day over at the Curragh!!

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Saturday 30th June 2018

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV and RUK)

1.10 – Betway Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16 – Never raced at the track before
14/16 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
9/16 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/16 – Came from stall 4 or lower
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

1.45 - Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV4

14/16 – Won over 7f before
14/16 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
14/16 – Had at least 1 run already that season
12/16 – Aged 5 or younger
10/16 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/16 – Came from stall 3 or lower
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 7 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

12.20 - Betfred ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

15/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Had won between 1-4 times before
10/16 – Rated 90 or less
10/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
10/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/16 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/16 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16- Ran at York last time out
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/16 – Won last time out
12 of the last 14 winners came from stall 7 or HIGHER
7 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 10-15

12.55 - Betfred TV Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16 – Had won over 6f before
14/16 – Unplaced last time out
14/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Yet to win a Group race
9/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/16 – Aged 5 or older
7/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/16 – Had run at Newcastle before
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
1/16 – Won last time out
Intisaab was second in the race 12 months ago
Aeolus won the race in 2015
9 of the last 15 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

1.30 - Betfred Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race for the John Smith´s Northumberland Plate) Cl2 2m56y ITV

Two previous runnings
Dannyday (7/2 fav) won the race in 2016
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Winners came from stalls 11-16 (inc)
2/2 – Carried 9-8 and 9-9 in weight
Trainer James Bethell has a 24% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer William Haggas is 2 from 4 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 25% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Karl Burke is just 1 from 31 with his older horses at the track
The average winning SP in the last 2 runnings is 5/2

 

2.05 – Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV4

Past Northumberland Plate Winners~

2017 -  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

15/16  - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
15/16 – Finished fifth or better last time out
14/16 – Came from stall 14 or lower
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/16 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/16 – Won by a National Hunt yard
4/16 – Won their previous race
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 10 winners)
3/16 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/16 – Trained by Donald McCain
1/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 13.5/1
Note: The 2016 & 2017 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

 

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ATR)

5.15 - Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Filies) 1m4f

Recent Irish Derby Winners

2017 – CAPRI (6/1)
2016 – HARZAND (4/6 fav)
2015 – JACK HOBBS (10/11 fav)
2014 – AUSTRALIA (1/8 fav)
2013 – TRADING LEATHER (6/1)
2012 - CAMELOT  (1/5 fav)
2011 – TREASURE BEACH (7/2)
2010 – CAPE BLANCO (7/2)
2009 – FAME AND GLORY (8/11 fav)
2008 – FROZEN FIRE (16/1)
2007 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (5/1)
2006 – DYLAN THOMAS (9/2 fav)
2005 – HURRICANE RUN (4/5 fav)
2004 – GREY SWALLOW (10/1)
2003 – ALAMSHAR  (4/1)

Key Irish Derby Betting Trends and Stats

15/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Had 3 or more wins in their career
13/15 – Won by an Irish-based yard
13/15 – Won a Group race before
13/15 – Favourites that were placed in the top 4
13/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Failed to win their last race
11/15 – Ran in the Epsom Derby last time out
10/15 – Had never raced at the Curragh before
9/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won it 12 times in all)
7/15 – Placed in the Epsom Derby (3 winners, Harzand, Australia & Camelot)
4/15 – Previous Group 1 winners
3/15 – Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 4/1

 

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.