Sat TV Trends: 30th Mar 2013

Lincoln

A Busy Day For C4 This Saturday......

A busy day this Saturday with nine LIVE C4 races at Doncaster, Haydock, Kempton and Musselburgh – Andy Newton’s got it all covered from a trends angle.

 

DONCASTER (ATR/C4)

1.55 – William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m

9/11 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/11 – Aged 4 years-old
9/11 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
9/11 – Carried 8-13 or more
7/11 – Won over a mile before
6/11 – Won from a double-figure draw
1/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Won last time out
0/11 – Won a race at Doncaster before
0/11 – Winners from stalls 3-8
The average winning SP in the last 11 renewals is 18/1
No winner aged older than 6 years-old in the last 11 years

3.05 - William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 1m

10/10 – Won between 2-4 times previously
10/10 – Aged 6 or younger
9/10 – Carried 9-4 or less
9/10 – Won over at least 1m previously
8/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/10 – Came from stall 9 or higher
7/10 – Favourites unplaced
7/10 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/10 – Having their first run of the season
6/10 – Won by a horse aged 4 years-old
6/10 – Finished  first or second in their last race
5/10 – Came from the top 3 in the market
5/10 – Ran at either Newmarket (3) or Lingfield (2) last time out
5/10 – Returned a double figure price
4/10 – Had ran at Doncaster previously
4/10 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/10 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Ridden by Johnny Murtagh
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

HAYDOCK (RUK/C4)

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2.05 – BetVictor.com Tim Molony Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (5yo+ 0-130)

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
6/6 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
6/6 – Never raced at Haydock over fences before
5/6 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
5/6 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
5/6 – Aged 8 or younger
5/6 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
4/6 – Carried 11-2 or more
4/6 – Won exactly two times over fences
3/6 – Finished first or second last time out
3/6 – Unplaced favourite
3/6 – Placed favourite
2/6 – Won by the Donald McCain stable
2/6 – Ridden by Jason Maguire
1/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 13/2

2.40 – BetVictor.com Handicap Hurdle (Jockey Club Grassroots Hurdle Series Final) (CLASS 2) (4yo+)

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 8 or younger
5/6 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles
5/6 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
5/6 – Placed favourites
4/6 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/6 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
4/6 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Carried 11-3 or more
4/6 – Rated 111 or higher
4/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Aged 6 years-old
3/6 – Won last time out
3/6 – Had won over at least 2 ½m (hurdles) before
2/6 – German bred
The average winning SP in the last 6 years is 15/2

3.15 – BetVictor.com Levy Board Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

3 previous runnings
3/3 – Carried 10-13 or more
3/3 – Rated between 132-135
3/3 – Won over at least 2 1/2m (chase) before
3/3 – Carried between 10-13 and 11-2
2/3 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
2/3 – Unplaced last time out
2/3 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
2/3-  Unplaced last time out
1/3 – One winning favourite (joint)

3.50 - BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (Jockey Club Grassroots Chase Series Final) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

1 previous running
Brian Ellison won the race 12 months ago

KEMPTON (RUK/C4)

2.20 – BetVictor Non-Runner Free Bet At Aintree Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 6 or younger
7/7 – Had won over 1m2f before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/7 – Drawn in stall 1-4
5/7 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
5/7 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/7 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
3/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Had won at Kempton before
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Gosden
2/7 – Ridden by Eddie Ahern
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/2


2.55 – BetVictor Grand National Non-Runner Free Bet Rosebery Handicap
(London Middle Distance Qualifier) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

10/10 – Had won over at least 9f before
9/10 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/10 – Rated between 89 and 99
7/10 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
7/10 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/10 – Aged 4 years-old
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.6/1

MUSSELBURGH (RUK/C4)

3.35 - totepool Royal Mile (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-100)

2 previous runnings
Both won by Richard Fahey
Richard Fahey has a 26% record with his 3 year-olds here
Mark Johnston has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Joe Fanning has a 33% (+£31) record when riding 3 year-olds here
Phillip Makin has a 22% record when riding 3 year-olds here
Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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2 replies
  1. John Bowness says:

    Absolutely brilliant — I lost myself for more than an hour going through these and loved every minute of it. Winners? We’ll have to wait and see but I hardly care now. It woul dbe good to have one race a day with trends even if the best race isn’t up to much.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      Very glad you enjoyed this. We do have Saturday TV Trends every weekend, so keep an eye out for that.

      Regarding daily content, Mal’s Stat Pack has something similar on a daily basis, but in truth, very often there’s no standout stats race during the week.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

Comments are closed.