Sat TV Trends 30th Nov 2013

Hennessy

Rocky Creek A Leading Hennessy Player

Another big Saturday ahead with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Fighting Fifth Hurdles the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – Andy Newton’s got all the C4 TV trends…….

Newbury (C4/RUK)

1.50 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f CH4

One previous running
At Fishers Cross (Rebecca Curtis) won the race 12 months ago

 

2.25 – bet365 Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y CH4

10/11 – Placed favourites
10/11 – Grade One winner over hurdles
10/11 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
9/11 – Winning favourites
9/11 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
9/11 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/11 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
8/11 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/11 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
7/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – French bred
7/11 – Returned odds-on in the betting
6/11 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
6/11 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4/11 – Won by Big Buck’s and Paul Nicholls
3/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

3.00 – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 3m2f110y

10/11 – Won a chase race over at least 3m previously
10/11 – Raced at Newbury previously (6 had won over fences there)
10/11 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Won a Grade 3 or better class chase race previously
9/11 – Won between 2-5 previous races over fences before
9/11 – SP’d 10/1 or shorter in the market
8/11 – Raced at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
8/11 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
8/11 – Placed in the first 3 last time out
8/11 – Won by a horse aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
7/11 – Rated between 140 and 151
6/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Favourites unplaced
5/11 – Had a previous run that season
4/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/11 – Trained by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/11 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 17/2
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (23 runnings) there have been 12 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35 - bet365 Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f CH4

10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
8/11 – French bred
8/11 – Officially rated between 126-135
8/11 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
7/11 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
7/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/11 – Placed in their last race
6/11 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
5/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/11 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/11 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

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Newcastle (C4/ATR)

2.05 – StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

11/11 – Placed in the first two in their latest race
11/11 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
10/11 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
10/11 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle that same season
9/11 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/11 – Officially rated 151 or higher
8/11 – Winning favourites
8/11 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
7/11 – Placed in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
7/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
4/11 – Won by an Irish bred
3/11 – Won by an Irish based yard
2/11 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
1/11 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

2.40 - At The Races Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m CH4

9/9 – Didn’t win their last race
8/9 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
7/9 – Irish bred
7/9 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
6/9 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Aged 8 years-old
4/9 – Unplaced favourites
4/9 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/9 – Ridden by Andrew Thornton
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 6/1

Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

 

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