Sat TV Trends – 3rd March 2012

Nicholls Eyes Another Greatwood Gold Cup

Can Paul Nicholls land Newbury's Greatwood Gold Cup for a fifth time since 2006 this Saturday? - Andy Newton's got all the trends for the LIVE C4 races.

 

NEWBURY (C4 & RUK)

2.05 - Betfair Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-130) CH4 Good To Soft 3m110y

No previous runnings
In-form Colin Tizzard has a 24% (+£26) strike-rate with his hurdles here – THEATRICAL STAR
Philip Hobbs is 20 from 103 (19%) with his hurdlers at Newbury – PAVILLON BLEU & IMPERIAL CIRCUS
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just 2 from 54 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track – SOUTH O’ THE BORDER & BENBENS
Former Gold Cup winning trainer Kim Bailey is 0 from 24 with his hurdlers here – CINDERELLA ROSE
Richard Johnson is 21 from 87 (24%, +£58) when riding over hurdles here – IMPERIAL CIRCUS
Barry Geraghty has a 19% record when riding over hurdles here – BUCK MAGIC
Timmy Murphy is just 2 from 36 when riding over hurdlers at the track – LOVE OF TARA

 
2.40 - williamhill.com Support Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 2) (0-145) CH4 Good 3m2f110y

Only 3 previous runnings
1 winning favourite
All 3 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
2 of the 3 carried 11-10 or MORE
2 of the 3 finished first or second last time out
Paul Nicholls is 27 from 98 (28%. +£20) with his chasers here – NICHE MARKET
Alan King is only 5 from 62 with his chasers at the track – BLAZING BAILEY
Nick Williams is 4 from 19 (21%) with his chasers here – DOM D’ORGEVAL
Ruby Walsh is 10 from 34 (29%) when riding over fences here – NICHE MARKET
Robert Thornton is only 1 from 44 (2%) over fences here – BLAZING BAILEY

3.10 - Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £22,780 CH4 Good 2m4f

2 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint)
5 of the last 9 were aged 8 years-old
8 of the last 9 were aged 8 or YOUNGER
All 9 carried 11-5 or LESS – bad news for WOOLCOMBE FOLLY
4 of the 9 returned a double-figure price
Paul Nicholls has won the race in 2006, 2008, 2009 & 2010 – AERIAL, PASCO & WOOLCOMBE FOLLY
The Pipe stable won this in 2006 & 2007 – DAN BREEN
8 of the last 9 FAILED to win last time out
6 of the last 9 had previously won at Newbury
7 of the last 9 had won over at least this trip previously
FINE PARCHMENT won the race 12 months ago
Nicky Henderson is 18 from 84 (21%) with his chasers at the track – DAVE’S DREAM
Paul Nicholls is 27 from 98 (28%) with his chasers here - AERIAL, PASCO & WOOLCOMBE FOLLY
Gary Moore is only 1 from 26, but is +£25 with his chasers here – FIX THE RIB
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 42 with his chasers at the course - RILEYEV
Barry Geraghty is 12 from 48 (25%) when riding over fences here – DAVE’S DREAM
Ruby Walsh is 10 from 34 (29%) over fences at the track - AERIAL
Robert Thornton is only 1 from 44 (2%) over fences here – ARALDUR
Aidan Colman is just 2 from 35 (6%) when riding over fences here - RILEYEV

 
3.45 - Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) CH4 Good To Soft 2m110y

2 of the last 9 went to the favourite (1 joint)
8 of the last 9 were aged 6 or YOUNGER
7 of the last 9 carried 11-2 or LESS
All 9 returned 9/1 or SHORTER in the betting
All 9 had won over at least this trip previously
6 of the last 9 had won at the track before (albeit 3 were on the flat)
3 of the last 9 won last time out
Gary Moore trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 - ORZARE
Trainer Tony Carroll won this race in 2010 - ZAFRANGAR
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2006 – SIRE COLLONGES
Nicky Henderson has a 20% record with his hurdlers here – DUBAI CREST
Paul Nicholls has a 24% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track – SIRE COLLONGES
Colin Tizzard is 4 from 17 (24%) with his hurdlers here - NAMPOUR
Ian Williams is 0 from 20 with his hurdlers here – REBEL DANCER
Ruby Walsh is 15 from 46 (33%) when riding over hurdles here – SIRE COLLONGES
Jeremiah McGrath is 2 from 3 (67) when riding over hurdles here – KING ZEAL
Timmy Murphy is just 2 from 36 over hurdles at the track - EBANOUR

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DONCASTER (C4 & ATR)

2.20 – Download William Hill From The App-Store Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) CH4 Good 3m110y

2 winning favourites in the last 8 runnings (1 co-fav)
6 of the last 8 carried 11-2 or LESS
No real age trend with 5, 6, 7, 9 & 10 year-olds all winning
All 8 returned 8/1 or SHORTER in the betting
50% of the last 8 had won over at least this trip before
None of the 8 had won at the track previously
All 8 recent winners failed to win their previous race
Alan King trained the winner in 2009 – SIR HARRY ORMESHER
Keith Reveley trained the winner in 2008 – CORKAGE
Alan King is 12 from 68 (18%) with his hurdlers at the course - SIR HARRY ORMESHER
Donald McCain is only 3 from 33 with his hurdlers here – ALDERLEY ROVER
Brian Hughes is only 2 from 45 when riding over hurdles at the track – ALLOW ME

3.25 - Download William Hill From The App-Store Grimthorpe Chase (Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) CH4 Good 3m2f

1 winning favourite in the last 8 runnings
7 of the last 8 returned 11/2 or SHORTER in the betting
7 of the last 8 were aged 10 or younger
6 of the last 8 carried 10-10 or LESS
7 of the last 8 returned between 10/3 and 11/2 in the betting
3 of the last 8 had previously won over at least this far
2 of the last 8 were previous course winners
5 of the last 8 won their last race
David Pipe is 3 from 11 (27%) with his chasers here - JUNIOR
Brian Ellison is 2 from 2 with his chasers here – NEPTUNE EQUESTER
Malcolm Jefferson is only 1 from 21 (5%) with his chasers here – MAC AEDA
Jockey Wayne Hutchinson is just 1 from 19 (5%) over fences at the track – WEST END ROCKER

 

Note: Trainer and jockey stats correct before Friday’s racing

 

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