Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 4th February 2017

Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby provide the LIVE ITV action this Saturday – As always, Andy Newton’s got all the races covered from a trends angle.....

Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

1.50 - Betfred "Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s" Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y ITV

10/10 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
10/10 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
8/10 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
8/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/10 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
4/10 – Aged 7 years-old
4/10 – French bred
4/10 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/10 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/10 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/10 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/10 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2


2.25 - Betfred TV Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

13/13 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/13 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
11/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/13 – Winning favourites
9/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/13 – French bred
6/13 – Aged 7 years-old
5/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
3/13 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning  SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/4


3.00 - Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV

11/11 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
11/11 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
10/11 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
9/11 – Officially rated 135 or lower
9/11 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
9/11 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/11 – Won only 2-3 times over hurdles previously
8/11 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/11 – Priced 13/2 or less
7/11 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
6/11 – Favourites placed
6/11 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/11 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/11 – Won their last race
4/11 – Favourites that won
4/11 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/11 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/11 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/1


3.35 - Betfred Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV

13/13 – Carried 11-5 or less
12/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/13 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
9/13 – Rated 136 or lower
8/13 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/13 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
7/13 – Placed last time out
7/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Irish-bred
5/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/13 – French-bred
5/13 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (2) last time out
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/13 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1


Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)


2.45 - totepool Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
11/12 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
10/12 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
9/12 – Aged 7 years-old
9/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/12 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
9/12 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/12 – Trained by Ian Williams
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 4/1

 

Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y

No previous runnings
Trainer Brian Ellison has a 25% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 19% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Henry Brooke has a +£28 level stakes profit when riding chasers at the track
Jockey Craig Nichol has a 22% when riding chasers at the track

3.15 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y

9/10 – Returned 13/2 or less in the betting
9/10 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
9/10 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
8/10 – Aged 6 years-old
8/10 – Former flat horses
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/10 – Rated between 120-130
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

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Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 38% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer John Quinn has a 37% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer James Ewart has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Henry Brooke has only a 4% strike-rate when riding hurdlers at the track
Trainer Lucinda Russell has just an 8% strike-rate with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Brian Ellison has just a 5% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Etaad - Seven Clans is the one to beat, but we think we head here with a fair e/w chance. Poor last time, but better draw and step up in trip are pluses. We'll ride the horse a bit different today to see if that helps too (George Baker in the saddle) - looks decent e/w value over the favourite and would not be shocked to see him run a lot better this time. "
Gary Moore

21/01/17 1st 14/1

"Fields Of Glory - Might have liked a bit more cut, but will be fine. Still a bit to learn over fences as this is only his 4th career outing over the bigger obstacles, but a horse that is capable of going well in a race like this and Richard Johnson has won on him before too. Looks one of my better chances on the day and hoping for a big run."
Tim Vaughan

20/01/17 1st 4/1

 

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