Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 4th June 2016

It’s Derby Day on the Epsom Downs this weekend and like every Saturday - Andy Newton’s got all the LIVE C4 races covered from a trends and stats angle……

Did you know that 13 of the last 14 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 10 of the last 14 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

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EPSOM Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

 

2.00 - Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y CH4

13/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Never run at Epsom before
11/13 – Had won over 1m before (4 over 1m2f)
10/13 – Placed last time out
10/13 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/13 – Carried 8-10 or more
9/13 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Favourites that were placed
8/13 – Horses placed from stall 1
4/13 – Won their previous race
3/13 – Winners from stall 1
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/13 – Won by trained Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Won by trained Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8.4/1
Stall 2 has just one place to its name in the last 12 runnings

 

2.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y CH4

12/13 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6 or 7
11/13 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/13 – Had raced within the last month
8/13 – Aged 4 years-old
7/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Had raced at Epsom before
7/13 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
4/13 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/13 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

 

3.10 - Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Sponsored by Investec) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

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13/13 – Aged 6 or younger
13/13 – Had previously won a Group 1 or 2 race
12/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/13 – Ran at either Chester, York, Newmarket or the Curragh last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Horses from stall 3 that were placed (two won)
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Won by Aidan O’Brien (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
5/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Had run at Epsom before
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2009, 2011)
1/13 – Winner from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

 

3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking "Dash" (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f CH4

14/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (11 within the last 4 weeks)
11/14 – Came from stall 8 or higher
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/14– Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
9/14 – Had raced at Epsom previously (only 2 had won)
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/14 – Won by the Dandy Nicholls stable (2002, 2003, 2005, 2009)
3/14 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/14 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1

 

4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y CH4

14/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Raced no more than 5 times before
14/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Had won a Group race before
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won from a single-figure stall
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Favourites that were placed
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
9/14 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/14 – Had won a Group One before
6/14 – Irish-trained winners
6/14 – Won by the favourite
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 5 in all)
4/14 – Won the Dante Stakes (York, 12th May) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
2/14 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/14 – Won over 1m4f before
0/14 – Run at the course before
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 7/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer/Jockey Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013 & 2014
Kieren Fallon rode the winner in 2004, 2003 & 1999

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Belcanto won a bumper at this track and has shown promise in a few novice hurdles. She looks to be on a competitive mark and I hope she has every chance of getting her head in front today providing the rain stays away."
Jamie Snowden 01/06/16 1st 3/1

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