Sat TV Trends: 4th May 2024

It’s Guineas Weekend at Newmarket this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are heading to Goodwood & Thirsk. As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle to put history on your side.

Can top Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien land his 11th 2000 Guineas?

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.10 – William Hill British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f RTV

10/10 – Aged between 3-5
10/10 – Won over 5f or 6f before
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Aged 3 years-old
5/10 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (2)
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 5)
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back

1.45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV

10/11 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/11 - Won 3+ times before
10/11 - Had won over 6f before
9/11 - Didn’t win last time out
8/11 - Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/11 - Returned 13/2 or bigger
7/11 - Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
7/11 - Unplaced favourites
7/11 - Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/11 - Rated 100+
3/11 - Winning favourites
2/11 - Trained by Richard Fahey
0/11 - Winners from stalls 1 or 2
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9.5/1

2.20 – Suffolk Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV

17/18 – Had won at least twice before
17/18 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/18 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
15/18 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
14/18 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Rated between 90 and 96
10/18 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
9/18 – Having their first run of the season
7/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Irish bred
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 - Winning favourites
2/18 - Trained by Andrew Balding
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 15 runnings

2.55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

19/21 – Won 3 or more times before
18/21 – Had won over 5f before
18/21 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
18/21 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
18/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
16/21 – Had run at Newmarket before
15/21– Aged 5 or younger
15/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/21 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/21 – Rated between 108 and 114
12/21 – Placed favourites
10/21 – Won last time out
7/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/21 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/21 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 3 runnings)
Just 4 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 16 runnings
5  of the last 7 runnings went to 4 year-olds
8 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
Vadream (7/1) won the race in 2023

3.35 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

21/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
20/22 – Had won over at least 7f before
20/22 – Had won a Group race before
20/22 – Had won between 2-5 times before
18/22 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
17/22 – Won last time out
17/22 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
15/22 – Having their first run of the season
14/22 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
14/22 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/22 – Placed favourites
12/22 – Won by an Irish-based yard
12/22 – Irish bred
9/22 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
9/22 – Had won over a mile before
9/22 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/22 – Winning favourites
7/22 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/22 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/22 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 9.5/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

11/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/11 – Won 2 or more times before
8/11 – Yet to race at the track
8/11 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/11 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
6/11 – Aged 4 years-old
6/11 – Won over a mile before
5/11 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
4/11 – Winners from stall 1
3/11 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Vickers.Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

11/12 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won at least twice before
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
10/12 – Won over at least 1m before
10/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
10/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Won between 2-4 times
7/12 – Winners from a double-figure draw
6/12 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 7)
7 of the last 10 winners returned 13/2 or bigger in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby

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