Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 5th Dec 2015

Another huge Saturday of NH action with the C4 cameras at Sandown & Aintree this week - as always we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races –including the Tingle Creek, Becher and Grand Sefton Chases.

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.55 - Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

12/12 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won a UK chase race over at least 2m
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/12 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Won their last race
10/12 – French (7) or Irish (3) bred
9/12 – Favourites placed
9/12 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 won)
9/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
7/12 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/12 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

2.25 - Jumeirah December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4

11/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Raced within the last month
11/12 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/12 – Rated between 116-128
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 7/1

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Aged 9 or younger
11/13 – Won a Grade One chase before
11/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
10/13 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/13 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/13 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
9/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/13 – French bred
9/13 – Won at least 4 times over fences before
8/13 – Favourites (2 joint)
8/13 – Won their last race
8/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/13 – Won a chase race at Sandown before
5/13 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/13 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 5/2
Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

3.35 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

11/11 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
10/11 – Won (fences) over at least 3m before
9/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 126 or higher
9/11 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/11 – Favourites unplaced
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/11 – Ran over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/11 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/11 – Won their their last race
3/11 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/11 – Trained by Tom George
1/11 –  Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

1.40 - Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

10/13 – Irish bred
10/13 – Had no more than 1 start that season
10/13 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or older
10/13 – Officially rated between 123-138
9/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/13 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/13 – Raced at Aintree before
8/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
8/13 – Raced over these Grand National-style fences before
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/13 – Raced in the previous season’s Grand National
5/13 – Favourites placed
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Irish-trained winners
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Favourites
2/13 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/13 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993

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2.15 - Betfred "Racing´s Biggest Supporter" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f CH4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/4 – Aged 8 or younger
2/4 – Favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011

2.45 - Betfred "Be Part of The Action" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f

9/11 - Carried 10-9 or more in weight
8/11 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 - Aged 6 or younger
8/11 – Rated 123 or higher
8/11 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/11 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Won over at last 2m4f before
6/11 – Raced at Aintree before (2 winners)
6/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – French (3) or Irish (3) bred
5/11 - Favourites
2/11 - Trained by Peter Bowen
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.20 - Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/10 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Rated 124 or more
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
7/10 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Run at Aintree before (2 over the GN style fences)
more
6/10 – Returned a double-figure price
6/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
5/10 – Winning distance 2 ½ lengths or
2/10 – Favourites
1/10 – Won last time out
1/10 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 18/1

 

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