Sat TV Trends – 5th Nov

Doncaster November Handicap

November Handicap: Can Willing Foe Become the Winning Favourite since 1995?

Did you know that in the last 10 years there’s not been a single winning favourite in Saturday’s November Handicap? - Andy Newton gives you all the key trends and stats ahead of the LIVE C4 action at Doncaster, Wincanton & Down Royal this weekend.


DONCASTER (ATR & C4)

2.00 – Betfred The Bonus King Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) Winner £12,938 CH4 Good To Soft 7f

3 previous runnings
No winning favourite
2 of the 3 returned a double-figure price
All 3 aged 6 or younger
All 3 ran in a handicap last time out
2 of the last 3 were unplaced in their previous race
Tim Easterby won the race in 2009 – CLOCKMAKER
Richard Hannon has a 21% (+£48) record with his 3 year-olds at the track – CASUAL GLIMPSE
Sir Michael Stoute is 5 from 16 (31%) with his older horses here - ENTITLED
Kevin Ryan is just 4 from 115 with his 4+year-olds at the track – ADVANCED, MASKED DANCE
Henry Candy has a 19% strike-rate (+£38) record with his older horses here – THE CONFESSOR
Martin Dwyer is 5 from 24 (21%) when riding 3 year-olds at the course - MASAYA
Frederik Tylicki is 9 from 36 (25%) when riding older horses here - DOCOFTHEBAY
Ted Durcan is just 1 from 34 when riding 4+year-olds at Doncaster – BONNIE BRAE

2.35 – Betfred Goals Galore E B F "Sir Percy" Gillies Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,760 CH4 Good To Soft 1m2f60y

2 of the last 8 went to the favourite (1 co-fav)
All 8 recent winners were aged either 3 or 4 years-old
7 of the last 8 ran in a Listed race last time out
6 of the last 8 finished unplaced in their previous race
7 of the last 8 were drawn in stall 10 or LOWER
3 of the last 5 ran at Lingfield last time out
50% of the last 8 winners returned a double-figure price
Ralph Beckett’s CEILDH HOUSE won this 12 months ago
John Dunlop won this in 2004 – TAMEEN
The Hills stable won this in 2003 – ROUGETTE & LUCKY LEGS
Richard Hills rode the winner in 2003 & 2006 – TAMEEN
James Fanshawe is 9 from 35 (26%) with his older horses here - CAPTIVATOR
Brian Meehan has a 25% record with his 4+year-olds at the track – BEA REMEMBERED
Martin Dwyer is 5 from 22 (23%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the course – MIRROR LAKE
Graham Gibbons is just 3 from 72 when riding older horses at Doncaster – ALL ANNALENA

2006 renewal was run at Windsor

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3.10 – Betfred November Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+) Winner £40,463 CH4 Good To Soft 1m4f

No winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
8 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
ALL 10 recent winners were aged 5 or YOUNGER
9 of the last 10 were aged either 3 or 4 years-old
7 of the last carried 8-13 or LESS
7 of the last 10 were placed in their previous race
5 of the last 10 finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
ALL 10 ran in a handicap last time out
50% ran at Newmarket last time out
7 of the last 10 came from stall 9 or HIGHER
John Dunlop won the race 12 months ago – HARLESTONE TIMES
John Gosden won the contest in 2009 – ZUIDER ZEE
John Gosden has a impressive 38% (6 from 16) record with his older horses here -
Saeed Bin Suroor is just 2 from 37 with his older horses at the track – WILLING FOE & BURJ NAHAR
Silvestre De Sousa is 6 from 30 (20%) when riding 3 year-olds here - OCEANWAY
Ted Durcan is just 1 from 34 when riding 4+year-olds at Doncaster – HARLESTONE TIMES

2006 renewal was run at Windsor
3.40 – Betfred 1350 Shops Nationwide Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) Winner £17,760 CH4 Good To Soft 6f

2 of the last 10 went to the favourite (1 co-fav)
9 of the last 10 were aged 4 or OLDER
4 of the last 10 returned a double-figure price
7 of the last 10 were placed in their last race
5 of the last 10 came from stall 7 to 11 (inc)
8 of the last 10 ran in either a Listed or Handicap race last time
Richard Hannon won this race in 2005 & 2007 – LIBRANNO
Richard Hannon has a 21% (+£48) record with his 3 year-olds at the track – LIBRANNO
John Gosden has a 22% record with his 3 year-olds at the track - ANNEEDAH
Bryan Smart is just 1 from 37 with his 3 year-olds at the course – LADY PARIS
Richard Fahey is only 4 from 65 when running 3 year-olds here – MAYSON
Robert Havlin in 4 from 18 when riding 3 year-olds at Doncaster - ANEEDAH

2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

WINCANTON (RUK & C4)

2.45 – totepool Elite Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £28,475 CH4 Good To Soft 2m

Only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years (1 joint-fav)
9 of the last 10 winners returned 11/2 or SHORTER in the betting
4 of the last 10 ran at Aintree last time out
50% of recent winners were unplaced in their previous race
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2001, 2002 2004 & 2009 – CELESTIAL HALO
CELESTIAL HALO won this race in 2009
Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty took the prize in 2008 – GRANDOUET
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record (+£23) with his hurdlers at Wincanton – CELESTIAL HALO
Dr Richard Newland is 2 from 7 with his hurdlers at the track -
Nick Schofield has a 23% (8 from 35, +£37) record when riding over hurdles here – AINE’S DELIGHT

3.20 - Badger Ales Trophy (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-150) Winner £34,170 CH4 Good To Soft 3m1f110y

4 of the last 10 were won by the favourite
7 of the last 10 finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
2 of the last 5 ran at Cheltenham last time out
No winner aged older than 9 in the last 10 years – Bad news for GONE TO LUNCH (11), HELLO DANDY (13) & MADISON DU BERLAIS (10)
Paul Nicholls won this in 2001, 2004, 2008 & 2010 – THE MINACK & MEANUS DANDY
MEANUS DANDY won the race 12 months ago
The Pipe stable won this prize in 2005 & 2007 - QULINTON
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2006 – ESTATES RECOVERY
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record (+£23) with his chasers at Wincanton – THE MINACK & MEANUS DANDY
The in-form Victor Dartnall team are 3 from 11 (27%) with their chasers here – RICHARD’S SUNDANCE
Nick Schofield has a 23% (8 from 35, +£37) record when riding over fences here – GONE TO LUNCH
Liam Treadwell is 3 from 12 (25%) when riding chasers at the track - ALDERLUCK

 

DOWN ROYAL (ATR & C4)

2.20 - JNwine.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) Winner €84,000 CH4 Soft 3m

4 of the last 9 went to the favourite
4 of the last 9 returned Evens or SHORTER
8 of the last 9 were aged 8 or OLDER
Paul Nicholls won this race in 2007, 2008 & 2010 – THE NIGHTINGALE
Jessie Harrington has a 24% record with her chasers here – BOSTONS ANGEL
Paul Nicholls has a huge 86% (6 from 7) record with his chasers at the track – THE NIGHTINGALE
Andrew Lynch is only 1 from 24 when riding over fences here – SIZING EUROPE

 

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