Sat TV Trends: 5th Oct 2024

Here at Geegeez, we take you through the eight LIVE ITV3 races this Saturday at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket from a trends angle.

At Redcar, we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - as Inspiral looks to follow up her win in the race from last year.

Then at Ascot, we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know? 18 of the last 21 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

Use these trends and stats to whittle down the final runners and find the best profiles of recent winner.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Sky Sports Racing)

1.50 – BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

19/19 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
19/19 – Won over 5f before
18/19 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Rated 101 or higher
14/19 – Aged 5 or younger
13/19 – Had won between 3-7 times before
12/19 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
10/19 – Raced at Newbury last time out
9/19 – Unplaced last time out
9/19 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/19 – Irish bred
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/19 – Trained by Michael Dods (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/19 – Won last time out
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
Emaraaty Ana won the race in 2023
15 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

2.25 – BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

20/21 - Finished fourth or better last time out
18/21 – Placed favourites
18/21 – Had won over 1m4f before
17/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
17/21 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/21 – Won at Listed or Group class before
16/21 – Had raced at the course before (7 won)
14/21 – Had won 4 or more times before
12/21 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
12/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/21 – Favourites to win
11/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 9)
2/21 – Trained by Owen Burrows (2 of last 6)
1/21 – Filly or mare winners
Al Qareem won the race in 2023
Hamish won the race in 2022
13 of the last 15 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 11 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Won over 6f previously
15/15 – Officially rated 100 or higher
13/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Won 4 or more times previously
11/15 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
10/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Raced 6 or more times that season
6/15 – Won their previous race
6/15 – Favourites to win
3/15 – Returned a double-figure price
2/15 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
4 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 6 & 8
9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
Vadream won the race in 2021
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 7 of the last 12 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5, 6 and 7 have won 9 of the last 12 runnings

3.35 – BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

20/21– Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
18/21 – Won over 7f previously
16/21 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
16/21 – Raced at Ascot previously
15/21 – Had raced within the last 30 days
13/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/21 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/21 – Raced 7 or more times that season
10/21 – Returned a double-figure price
8/21 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
7/21 – Raced at Ayr last time out
6/21 – Favourites that won
2/21 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/21 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/21 – Won their previous race
0/21 – Filly or mare winners
11 of the last 13 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or younger
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 15 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
5 of the last 15 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
2 of the last 5 winners came from stall 17
Popmaster was second in 2023
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

RELATED: 2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.30 - British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

Just 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 3 or 4
7/8 – Favourites placed in the first three
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Carried 9st or more
5/8 – Didn’t win last time out
5/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Won just once before
4/8 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Roger Varian
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1

2.05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

Just 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Foaled Feb or later
8/9 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/9 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/9 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
5/9 – Rated between 79-85
5/9 – Won just one before
4/9 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
2/9 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 8 winners foaled in March or April
4 of the last 8 winners went to a filly

2.40 – Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

18/20 – Had won over at least 1m before
17/20 – Previous Group winners
14/20 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
13/20 – Won between 3-5 times before
13/20 – Rated between 113 and 119
13/20 – Previous Group One winners
10/20 – Aged 3 years-old
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 co)
7/20 – Raced at Deauville last time out
7/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/20 – French-trained winners
3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 8)
2/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
16 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 5 of the last 18 runnings
Horses from stalls 1 (4) or 7 (2) or 9 (2) have won 8 of the last 14
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4 runnings (3 in total)
Inspiral won the race in 2023

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.20 – William Hill Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

19/22 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
17/22 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
16/22 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
13/22 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/22 – Foaled in March or later
12/22 – Had won over 6f before
11/22 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
8/22 – Unplaced favourites
8/22 – Winning favourites
6/22 – Filly winners
6/22 – Won last time out
6/22 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/22 – Trained by Tim Easterby (4 wins in total)
2/22 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 8
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)

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