Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 6th Oct 2018

This weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in seven LIVE races.

At Redcar we've got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage - a race the French have won 5 times in the last 16 years. Then at Ascot we've four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap - Did you know that 14 of the last 16 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

As always, use these key trends to find the best profiles of recent winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1.50 – Duke Of Edinburgh’s Award Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/14 – Won over 5f before
13/14 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated 101 or higher
11/14 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
11/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
6/14 – Irish bred
3/14 - Trained by Bryan Smart
2/14 – Won last time out
1/14 – Winning favourites
Just Glamorous (33/1) won the race in 2017
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 10 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

2.25 – Stella Artois Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

16/16 - Finished fourth or better last time out
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Won at Listed or better class before
11/16 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
10/16 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
10/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/16 – Favourites to win
6/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/16 – Trained by Marcus Tregoning
2/16 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
9 of the last 10 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Danehill Kodiac (8/1) won the race in 2007
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

3.00 - John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Won over 6f previously
10/10 – Officially rated 100 or higher
9/10 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/10 – Won 4 or more times previously
8/10 – Had run within the last 30 days
7/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/10 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/10 – Won their previous race
3/10 – Returned a double-figure price
3/10 – Favourites to win
2/10 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 7 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 7 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Blue Point (Evs) won the race in 2017

3.35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/16 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
13/16 – Won over 7f previously
11/16 – Had raced within the last 30 days
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Raced at Ascot previously
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/16 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/16 – Raced at Ayr last time out
4/16 – Favourites to win
2/16 – Traind by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Won their previous race
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 10 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 10 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Accidental Agent (16/1) won the race in 2017

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Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.05 - British EBF Breeders´ Fillies´ Series Sprint Handicap Cl2 6f ITV4

Just 2 previous running
Trainer Malcolm Saunders won the race in 2017
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2016
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Hughie Morrison has a 33% record with his 3 year-olds at the track


3.15 -
Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

12/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/14 – Previous Group winners
12/14 – Won between 3-5 times before
11/14 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Rated between 113 and 119
9/14 – Previous Group One winners
7/14 – Aged 3 years-old
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/14 – French-trained winners
5/14 – Raced at Deauville last time out
4/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 11 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 4 of the last 12 runnings
Roly Poly (4/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

 

Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.45 – Racing UK Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
10/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
10/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Foaled in March or later
8/16 – Had won over 6f before
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Filly winners
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/16 – Trained by Stan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

 

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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