Saturday TV Trends

We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick.

As always we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 -
Betfair In-Play Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

13/14 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/14 – Aged 7 or younger
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/14 – French bred
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Raced at Haydock last time out

 

2.25 – Win Bigger On The Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

14/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Placed favourites
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
11/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/14 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/14 – French bred
6/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last two renewals (2017 & 2018)

Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot


3.00 -
Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

14/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
10/16 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/16 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/16 – Returned a double-figure price
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 13 runnings is 3/1

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Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton and the 2019 running staged at Ascot

 

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

17/17 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/17 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Aged 5 years-old (including 7 of last 13)
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of last 6)
2/17  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/17 – Owned by JP McManus
1/17 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
22 of the last 23 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

2.40 – St Mary’s Lands Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 5 previous running
5/5 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
5/5 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/5 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
3/5 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/5 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/5 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

3.15 – Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Irish (3) or French (6) bred
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
7/9 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
7/9 – Unplaced in their last race
7/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

 

 

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